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模拟和绘制未来气候和土地利用变化对中国延河流域生态系统服务的时空效应及制图。

Simulating and mapping the spatial and seasonal effects of future climate and land -use changes on ecosystem services in the Yanhe watershed, China.

机构信息

School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710119, China.

National Demonstration Center for Experimental Geography Education, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710119, China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2018 Jan;25(2):1115-1131. doi: 10.1007/s11356-017-0499-8. Epub 2017 Oct 27.

DOI:10.1007/s11356-017-0499-8
PMID:29079980
Abstract

Effective information about ecosystem services is essential to help optimize and prioritize activities that support conservation planning in the face of land use and climate changes. This study shows an approach that integrates several dissimilar models for assessing water-related ecosystem services to predict values in 2050 under three land use scenarios in the Yanhe watershed. The simulated output variables pertaining to water yield and sediment yield were used as indicators for two ecosystem-regulating services, i.e., water flow regulation and erosion regulation, which were quantified using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. The model results were translated into a relative ecosystem service valuation scale, which facilitated the analysis of spatial and seasonal changes and served as the basis for the applied mapping approach. The simulated results indicate that higher water-related regulation services were concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of rivers with high water yield and low sediment erosion. The highest water flow regulation services occurred in summer; nevertheless, this was when erosion regulation services were the lowest compared to other periods in 2050. A comparison of the three land use scenarios showed differences in the water-related regulation services. Scenario 1, with high forest coverage, had the highest erosion regulation services, but the water flow regulation services were the lowest. Scenario 3 showed the reverse pattern. Scenario 2 had intermediate water flow regulation and erosion regulation. Increasing vegetation cover in the watershed is conducive to controlling water and soil erosion but could lead to a decline in available water resources. Spatial mapping is a powerful tool for displaying the spatiotemporal differences in the water-related regulation services delivered by ecosystems and can help decision makers optimize land use in the future, with the goal of maximizing the benefits offered by ecological services in the Yanhe watershed.

摘要

有关生态系统服务的有效信息对于帮助优化和优先考虑支持保护规划的活动至关重要,因为这些活动需要应对土地利用和气候变化。本研究展示了一种方法,该方法整合了几种不同的模型来评估与水有关的生态系统服务,以预测延河流域在三种土地利用情景下 2050 年的价值。模拟输出变量与产水量和泥沙产沙量有关,被用作两个生态调节服务的指标,即水流调节和侵蚀调节,这些服务使用土壤和水评估工具(SWAT)模型进行量化。模型结果被转化为一个相对生态系统服务价值尺度,这便于分析空间和季节性变化,并为应用制图方法提供了基础。模拟结果表明,具有高径流量和低泥沙侵蚀的河流中下游地区的水相关调节服务较高。水流调节服务在夏季最高;然而,与 2050 年的其他时期相比,此时的侵蚀调节服务最低。三种土地利用情景的比较显示了水相关调节服务的差异。具有高森林覆盖率的情景 1 具有最高的侵蚀调节服务,但水流调节服务最低。情景 3 则相反。情景 2 具有中等的水流调节和侵蚀调节服务。流域内植被覆盖的增加有利于控制水土侵蚀,但可能导致可用水资源的减少。空间制图是展示生态系统提供的与水有关的调节服务的时空差异的有力工具,可以帮助决策者在未来优化土地利用,以最大限度地提高延河流域生态服务的效益。

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