列线图预测胰十二指肠切除术后壶腹周围腺癌患者的长期生存。

Nomograms predict long-term survival for patients with periampullary adenocarcinoma after pancreatoduodenectomy.

机构信息

Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510060, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

BMC Cancer. 2018 Mar 27;18(1):327. doi: 10.1186/s12885-018-4240-x.

DOI:10.1186/s12885-018-4240-x

PMID:29580215

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5870913/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of patients with periampullary adenocarcinoma after pancreatoduodenectomy is diverse and not yet clearly illustrated. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram to predict individual risk of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with periampullary adenocarcinoma after pancreatoduodenectomy.

METHODS

A total of 205 patients with periampullary adenocarcinoma after pancreatoduodenectomy were retrospectively included. OS and PFS were evaluated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Two nomograms for predicting OS and PFS were established, and the predictive accuracy was measured by the concordance index (Cindex) and calibration plots.

RESULTS

Lymph node ratio (LNR), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) and anatomical location were incorporated into the nomogram for OS prediction and LNR, CA19-9; anatomical location and tumor differentiation were incorporated into the nomogram for PFS prediction. All calibration plots for the probability of OS and PFS fit well. The Cindexes of the nomograms for OS and PFS prediction were 0.678 and 0.68, respectively. The OS and PFS survival times were stratified significantly using the nomogram-predicted survival probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

The present nomograms for OS and PFS prediction can provide valuable information for tailored decision-making for patients with periampullary adenocarcinoma after pancreatoduodenectomy.

摘要

背景

胰十二指肠切除术后胰周腺癌患者的预后各不相同，目前尚不清楚。本研究旨在建立一个列线图，以预测胰十二指肠切除术后胰周腺癌患者的总生存（OS）和无进展生存（PFS）的个体风险。

方法

回顾性纳入 205 例胰十二指肠切除术后胰周腺癌患者。采用 Kaplan-Meier 法评估 OS 和 PFS。建立了用于预测 OS 和 PFS 的两个列线图，并通过一致性指数（Cindex）和校准图来衡量预测准确性。

结果

淋巴结比率（LNR）、碳水化合物抗原 19-9（CA19-9）和解剖位置被纳入 OS 预测列线图，LNR、CA19-9、解剖位置和肿瘤分化被纳入 PFS 预测列线图。OS 和 PFS 概率的所有校准图拟合良好。OS 和 PFS 预测列线图的 Cindex 分别为 0.678 和 0.68。根据列线图预测的生存概率对 OS 和 PFS 生存时间进行了显著分层。