当前和未来潜在的季节性室内居住温度趋势及对南非农村地区可能产生的健康风险。

Current and Potential Future Seasonal Trends of Indoor Dwelling Temperature and Likely Health Risks in Rural Southern Africa.

机构信息

Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg 2028, South Africa.

Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0028, South Africa.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018 May 10;15(5):952. doi: 10.3390/ijerph15050952.

Abstract

Climate change has resulted in rising temperature trends which have been associated with changes in temperature extremes globally. Attendees of Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 agreed to strive to limit the rise in global average temperatures to below 2 °C compared to industrial conditions, the target being 1.5 °C. However, current research suggests that the African region will be subjected to more intense heat extremes over a shorter time period, with projections predicting increases of 4⁻6 °C for the period 2071⁻2100, in annual average maximum temperatures for southern Africa. Increased temperatures may exacerbate existing chronic ill health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes-related conditions. Exposure to extreme temperatures has also been associated with mortality. This study aimed to consider the relationship between temperatures in indoor and outdoor environments in a rural residential setting in a current climate and warmer predicted future climate. Temperature and humidity measurements were collected hourly in 406 homes in summer and spring and at two-hour intervals in 98 homes in winter. Ambient temperature, humidity and windspeed were obtained from the nearest weather station. Regression models were used to identify predictors of indoor apparent temperature (AT) and to estimate future indoor AT using projected ambient temperatures. Ambient temperatures will increase by a mean of 4.6 °C for the period 2088⁻2099. Warming in winter was projected to be greater than warming in summer and spring. The number of days during which indoor AT will be categorized as potentially harmful will increase in the future. Understanding current and future heat-related health effects is key in developing an effective surveillance system. The observations of this study can be used to inform the development and implementation of policies and practices around heat and health especially in rural areas of South Africa.

摘要

气候变化导致气温上升趋势,这与全球温度极端变化有关。第 21 届缔约方会议(COP21)与会者同意努力将全球平均气温上升幅度限制在工业化前水平以下 2°C,目标是 1.5°C。然而,目前的研究表明,非洲地区将在更短的时间内经历更强烈的极端高温,预测显示,南部非洲的年平均最高温度将在 2071 年至 2100 年期间增加 4-6°C。气温升高可能会加剧现有的慢性健康问题,如心血管疾病、呼吸道疾病、脑血管疾病和糖尿病相关疾病。暴露在极端温度下也与死亡率有关。本研究旨在考虑在当前气候和预测未来更温暖的气候下,农村住宅室内外环境温度之间的关系。在夏季和春季,每小时在 406 户家庭中收集温度和湿度测量值,在冬季每两小时在 98 户家庭中收集。从最近的气象站获取环境温度、湿度和风速。回归模型用于识别室内表观温度(AT)的预测因子,并使用预测的环境温度估算未来室内 AT。在 2088 年至 2099 年期间,环境温度将平均升高 4.6°C。预计冬季的变暖幅度将大于夏季和春季。未来,被归类为可能有害的室内 AT 的天数将会增加。了解当前和未来与热相关的健康影响是开发有效监测系统的关键。本研究的观测结果可用于为热与健康相关政策和实践的制定和实施提供信息,特别是在南非的农村地区。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/94f5/5981991/80ae16a7e045/ijerph-15-00952-g001.jpg

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