中国非洲猪瘟的需求驱动传播模式。
Demand-driven spreading patterns of African swine fever in China.
机构信息
School of Data Science, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China.
The State Key Laboratory of Management and Control for Complex Systems, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China.
出版信息
Chaos. 2021 Jun;31(6):061102. doi: 10.1063/5.0053601.
African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious hemorrhagic viral disease of domestic and wild pigs. ASF has led to major economic losses and adverse impacts on livelihoods of stakeholders involved in the pork food system in many European and Asian countries. While the epidemiology of ASF virus (ASFV) is fairly well understood, there is neither any effective treatment nor vaccine. In this paper, we propose a novel method to model the spread of ASFV in China by integrating the data of pork import/export, transportation networks, and pork distribution centers. We first empirically analyze the overall spatiotemporal patterns of ASFV spread and conduct extensive experiments to evaluate the efficacy of a number of geographic distance measures. These empirical analyses of ASFV spread within China indicate that the first occurrence of ASFV has not been purely dependent on the geographical distance from existing infected regions. Instead, the pork supply-demand patterns have played an important role. Predictions based on a new distance measure achieve better performance in predicting ASFV spread among Chinese provinces and thus have the potential to enable the design of more effective control interventions.
非洲猪瘟(ASF)是一种高度传染性的猪出血性病毒性疾病。ASF 已导致许多欧洲和亚洲国家的猪肉食品系统相关利益方遭受重大经济损失和不利影响。尽管 ASF 病毒(ASFV)的流行病学相当清楚,但目前既没有有效的治疗方法,也没有疫苗。本文提出了一种新方法,通过整合猪肉进出口、运输网络和猪肉分销中心的数据,来模拟 ASFV 在我国的传播。我们首先对 ASFV 传播的整体时空模式进行实证分析,并进行了大量实验来评估多种地理距离度量的效果。对中国境内 ASF 传播的实证分析表明,ASF 的首次发生并不完全取决于与现有感染地区的地理距离。相反,猪肉供需模式发挥了重要作用。基于新距离度量的预测在预测中国各省 ASF 传播方面表现更好,因此有可能设计更有效的控制干预措施。