有向无环图教程。
Tutorial on directed acyclic graphs.
机构信息
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, 550 16th St, 2nd Floor, San Francisco, CA 94158.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, 550 16th St, 2nd Floor, San Francisco, CA 94158.
出版信息
J Clin Epidemiol. 2022 Feb;142:264-267. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2021.08.001. Epub 2021 Aug 8.
Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are an intuitive yet rigorous tool to communicate about causal questions in clinical and epidemiologic research and inform study design and statistical analysis. DAGs are constructed to depict prior knowledge about biological and behavioral systems related to specific causal research questions. DAG components portray who receives treatment or experiences exposures; mechanisms by which treatments and exposures operate; and other factors that influence the outcome of interest or which persons are included in an analysis. Once assembled, DAGs - via a few simple rules - guide the researcher in identifying whether the causal effect of interest can be identified without bias and, if so, what must be done either in study design or data analysis to achieve this. Specifically, DAGs can identify variables that, if controlled for in the design or analysis phase, are sufficient to eliminate confounding and some forms of selection bias. DAGs also help recognize variables that, if controlled for, bias the analysis (e.g., mediators or factors influenced by both exposure and outcome). Finally, DAGs help researchers recognize insidious sources of bias introduced by selection of individuals into studies or failure to completely observe all individuals until study outcomes are reached. DAGs, however, are not infallible, largely owing to limitations in prior knowledge about the system in question. In such instances, several alternative DAGs are plausible, and researchers should assess whether results differ meaningfully across analyses guided by different DAGs and be forthright about uncertainty. DAGs are powerful tools to guide the conduct of clinical research.
有向无环图(DAGs)是一种直观而严谨的工具,可用于交流临床和流行病学研究中的因果问题,并为研究设计和统计分析提供信息。DAG 是为描述与特定因果研究问题相关的生物和行为系统的先验知识而构建的。DAG 组件描绘了谁接受治疗或经历暴露;治疗和暴露运作的机制;以及影响感兴趣的结果或哪些人被纳入分析的其他因素。一旦组装完成,DAG 通过一些简单的规则,指导研究人员确定是否可以在没有偏差的情况下识别出感兴趣的因果效应,如果可以,在设计或数据分析中必须采取什么措施来实现这一点。具体来说,DAG 可以识别出如果在设计或分析阶段进行控制,则足以消除混杂和某些形式的选择偏差的变量。DAG 还有助于识别出如果进行控制,会使分析产生偏差的变量(例如,暴露和结果都受影响的中介变量或因素)。最后,DAG 帮助研究人员认识到由于选择个体进入研究或未能完全观察到所有个体直到达到研究结果而引入的潜在偏见来源。然而,DAG 并非万无一失,主要是由于对所讨论系统的先验知识有限。在这种情况下,可能存在几种替代的 DAG,研究人员应评估不同 DAG 指导的分析结果是否有明显差异,并坦率地说明不确定性。DAG 是指导临床研究的有力工具。