利用谷歌趋势预测和监测 COVID-19 传播:文献综述。
Forecasting and Surveillance of COVID-19 Spread Using Google Trends: Literature Review.
机构信息
Department of Public Health, Institute of Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, M. K. Čiurlionio 21/27, LT-03101 Vilnius, Lithuania.
出版信息
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Sep 29;19(19):12394. doi: 10.3390/ijerph191912394.
The probability of future Coronavirus Disease (COVID)-19 waves remains high, thus COVID-19 surveillance and forecasting remains important. Online search engines harvest vast amounts of data from the general population in real time and make these data publicly accessible via such tools as Google Trends (GT). Therefore, the aim of this study was to review the literature about possible use of GT for COVID-19 surveillance and prediction of its outbreaks. We collected and reviewed articles about the possible use of GT for COVID-19 surveillance published in the first 2 years of the pandemic. We resulted in 54 publications that were used in this review. The majority of the studies (83.3%) included in this review showed positive results of the possible use of GT for forecasting COVID-19 outbreaks. Most of the studies were performed in English-speaking countries (61.1%). The most frequently used keyword was "coronavirus" (53.7%), followed by "COVID-19" (31.5%) and "COVID" (20.4%). Many authors have made analyses in multiple countries (46.3%) and obtained the same results for the majority of them, thus showing the robustness of the chosen methods. Various methods including long short-term memory (3.7%), random forest regression (3.7%), Adaboost algorithm (1.9%), autoregressive integrated moving average, neural network autoregression (1.9%), and vector error correction modeling (1.9%) were used for the analysis. It was seen that most of the publications with positive results (72.2%) were using data from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Later, the search volumes reduced even though the incidence peaked. In most countries, the use of GT data showed to be beneficial for forecasting and surveillance of COVID-19 spread.
未来出现冠状病毒病(COVID-19)浪潮的可能性仍然很高,因此 COVID-19 的监测和预测仍然很重要。在线搜索引擎实时从普通人群中收集大量数据,并通过 Google Trends(GT)等工具公开提供这些数据。因此,本研究旨在回顾有关使用 GT 进行 COVID-19 监测和预测其暴发的文献。我们收集并回顾了在大流行的头 2 年中发表的有关 GT 可能用于 COVID-19 监测的文章。我们使用了本综述中的 54 篇出版物。本综述中包含的大多数研究(83.3%)表明,GT 可能用于预测 COVID-19 暴发的结果为阳性。大多数研究是在英语国家进行的(61.1%)。使用最多的关键字是“冠状病毒”(53.7%),其次是“COVID-19”(31.5%)和“COVID”(20.4%)。许多作者在多个国家进行了分析,并且大多数分析的结果相同,从而显示出所选方法的稳健性。各种方法,包括长短期记忆(3.7%)、随机森林回归(3.7%)、Adaboost 算法(1.9%)、自回归综合移动平均、神经网络自回归(1.9%)和向量误差校正模型(1.9%),都用于分析。结果表明,大多数(72.2%)具有阳性结果的出版物使用的是 COVID-19 大流行第一波的数据。后来,即使发病率达到高峰,搜索量也减少了。在大多数国家,使用 GT 数据对 COVID-19 传播的预测和监测都很有帮助。