Zhang Yi, Sun Fangfang, Huang Zhiqiu, Song Lan, Jin Shufang, Chen Long
Shenzhen Institute of Sustainable Development, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, China.
Shenzhen Academy of Environmental Sciences, Shenzhen, 518001, China.
J Clean Prod. 2023 Jul 10;409:137173. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137173. Epub 2023 Apr 21.
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced the global economy, international travel, global supply chains, and how people interact, and subsequently affect globalization in coming years. In order to understand the impact of COVID-19 on globalization and provide potential guidance to policymakers, the present study predicted the globalization level of the world average and 14 specific countries in scenarios with and without COVID-19 based on a new Composite Indicator method which contains 15 indicators. Our results revealed that the world average globalization level is expected to decrease from 2017 to 2025 under the scenario without COVID-19 by -5.99%, while the decrease of globalization under the COVID-19 scenario is predicted to reach -4.76% in 2025. This finding implies that the impact of COVID-19 on globalization will not be as severe as expected in 2025. Nevertheless, the downward trend of globalization without COVID-19 is due to the decline of the Environmental indicators, whereas the decline under the COVID-19 scenario is attributed to Economic aspects (almost -50%). The impact of COVID-19 on globalization varies across individual countries. Among the countries investigated, COVID-19 had a positive impact on the globalization of Japan, Australia, the United States, the Russian Federation, Brazil, India and Togo. In contrast, the globalization in the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Qatar, Egypt, China and Gabon are expected to decrease. The variation of impact induced by COVID-19 on those countries is attributed to the weighting of economic, environmental and political aspects of globalization is different across these countries. Our results can help governments take suitable measures to balance economic, environmental and political policies, which may better support their decision-making.
新冠疫情对全球经济、国际旅行、全球供应链以及人们的互动方式产生了重大影响，并将在未来几年对全球化产生影响。为了解新冠疫情对全球化的影响并为政策制定者提供潜在指导，本研究基于一种包含15项指标的新综合指标方法，预测了在有和没有新冠疫情的情况下世界平均水平以及14个特定国家的全球化水平。我们的结果显示，在没有新冠疫情的情况下，预计2017年至2025年世界平均全球化水平将下降5.99%，而在新冠疫情情况下，预计2025年全球化水平下降幅度将达到4.76%。这一发现意味着，到2025年新冠疫情对全球化的影响不会像预期的那么严重。然而，没有新冠疫情时全球化的下降趋势是由于环境指标的下降，而在新冠疫情情况下的下降则归因于经济方面（几乎占50%）。新冠疫情对全球化的影响因国家而异。在所调查的国家中，新冠疫情对日本、澳大利亚、美国、俄罗斯联邦、巴西、印度和多哥的全球化产生了积极影响。相比之下，预计英国、瑞士、卡塔尔、埃及、中国和加蓬的全球化水平将下降。新冠疫情对这些国家影响的差异归因于这些国家全球化的经济、环境和政治方面的权重不同。我们的结果可以帮助各国政府采取适当措施平衡经济、环境和政治政策，这可能更好地支持他们的决策。
