落后:1933 年至 2021 年美国与其他国家之间预期寿命差距的日益扩大。

Falling Behind: The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy Between the United States and Other Countries, 1933-2021.

机构信息

Steven H. Woolf is with the Center on Society and Health and the Department of Family Medicine and Population Health, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond.

出版信息

Am J Public Health. 2023 Sep;113(9):970-980. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2023.307310. Epub 2023 Jun 1.

Abstract

To document the evolution of the US life expectancy disadvantage and regional variation across the US states. I obtained life expectancy estimates in 2022 from the United Nations, the Human Mortality Database, and the US Mortality Database, and calculated changes in growth rates, US global position (rank), and state-level trends. Increases in US life expectancy slowed from 1950 to 1954 (0.21 years/annum) and 1955 to 1973 (0.10 years/annum), accelerated from 1974 to 1982 (0.34 years/annum), and progressively deteriorated from 1983 to 2009 (0.15 years/annum), 2010 to 2019 (0.06 years/annum), and 2020 to 2021 (-0.97 years/annum). Other countries experienced faster growth in each phase except 1974 to 1982. During 1933 to 2021, 56 countries on 6 continents surpassed US life expectancy. Growth in US life expectancy was slowest in Midwest and South Central states. The US life expectancy disadvantage began in the 1950s and has steadily worsened over the past 4 decades. Dozens of globally diverse countries have outperformed the United States. Causal factors appear to have been concentrated in the Midwest and South. Policies that differentiate the United States from other countries and circumstances associated with the Midwest and South may have contributed. ( 2023;113(9):970-980. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307310).

摘要

记录美国预期寿命劣势的演变以及美国各州的区域差异。我从联合国、人类死亡率数据库和美国死亡率数据库中获取了 2022 年的预期寿命估计值,并计算了增长率、美国全球排名(排名)和州级趋势的变化。美国的预期寿命增长从 1950 年到 1954 年(0.21 年/年)和 1955 年到 1973 年(0.10 年/年)放缓,从 1974 年到 1982 年(0.34 年/年)加速,从 1983 年到 2009 年(0.15 年/年)、2010 年到 2019 年(0.06 年/年)和 2020 年到 2021 年(-0.97 年/年)逐渐恶化。除 1974 年至 1982 年外,其他国家在每个阶段的增长速度都更快。在 1933 年至 2021 年期间,六大洲的 56 个国家的预期寿命超过了美国。中西部和中南部各州的美国预期寿命增长最慢。美国的预期寿命劣势始于 20 世纪 50 年代,在过去 40 年中稳步恶化。数十个全球多样化的国家表现优于美国。导致这种情况的因素似乎集中在中西部和南部。导致美国与其他国家不同的政策以及与中西部和南部相关的情况可能是造成这种情况的原因。(2023;113(9):970-980。https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307310)。

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