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1990 年至 2019 年骨关节炎疾病负担的时间趋势,以及到 2030 年的预测。

Temporal trends in the disease burden of osteoarthritis from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030.

机构信息

Quanzhou First Hospital Affiliated to Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, Fujian Province, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2023 Jul 24;18(7):e0288561. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288561. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

This study aimed to report trends in the global burden of osteoarthritis (OA) from 1990 to 2019 and predict the trends in the following years based on Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. The study included reporting on the prevalence and incidence rates, as well as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Additionally, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) and Estimated Annual Percent Change (EAPC) were analyzed along with related factors, finally, Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis were utilized to predict the trends in the upcoming years. In 2019, globally, there were about 414.7 million (95%UI: 368.8 to 464.4 million) OA incident cases, with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) about 492.21 (95% UI:438.66 to 551.5) per 100000. And there were about 527.8 million (95% UI: 478.7 to 584.8 million) OA prevalent cases in 2019. The DALYs for OA increased to about 189.49 million (95%UI: 95.71 to 376.60 million) from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC:0.14%; 95%CI: 0.12% to 0.16%). There was a positive association between ASR and Socio-demographic index (SDI) both at the regional and national level. BAPC results showed that ASR in females would decrease but increase in males in the following years. In conclusion, the global burden of OA has risen steadily between 1990 and 2019, placing a significant strain on society. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years. To alleviate this burden, it is necessary to implement measures that target risk factors such as high body mass index.

摘要

本研究旨在报告 1990 年至 2019 年全球骨关节炎(OA)的负担趋势,并根据 2019 年全球疾病、伤害和危险因素研究(GBD)预测未来几年的趋势。研究包括报告患病率和发病率以及伤残调整生命年(DALY)。此外,还分析了年龄标准化发病率(ASR)和估计年百分变化(EAPC)以及相关因素,最后,利用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)分析预测未来几年的趋势。2019 年,全球约有 4.147 亿例(95%UI:3.688 亿至 4.644 亿)OA 新发病例,年龄标准化发病率(ASR)约为 492.21(95%UI:438.66 至 551.5)/100000。2019 年全球约有 5.278 亿例(95%UI:4.787 亿至 5.848 亿)OA 现患病例。1990 年至 2019 年,OA 的 DALY 增加到约 1.8949 亿(95%UI:95.71 至 376.60 百万)(EAPC:0.14%;95%CI:0.12%至 0.16%)。ASR 与区域和国家层面的社会人口指数(SDI)呈正相关。BAPC 结果表明,未来几年女性的 ASR 将下降,而男性的 ASR 将增加。总之,1990 年至 2019 年期间,全球 OA 负担稳步上升,给社会带来了巨大压力。这一趋势预计将在未来几年持续。为了减轻这一负担,有必要针对高体重指数等危险因素采取措施。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ebda/10365297/2d89cca957ad/pone.0288561.g001.jpg

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