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贸易冲击和传染病引起的贸易转移:来自 110 个国家的证据。

Trade shocks and trade diversion due to epidemic diseases: Evidence from 110 countries.

机构信息

School of International Economics, China Foreign Affairs University, Beijing, China.

College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2024 May 31;19(5):e0301828. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0301828. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

COVID-19 has been a massive trade shock that has disrupted global trade, making the last few years a special phase. Even during normal times, epidemic diseases have acted as trade shocks in specific countries, albeit not to the same extent as COVID-19. For some trade shocks, the situation normalizes after the disease transmission is over; for some, it does not. Thus, specific countries can sometimes lose their original trade ratio due to trade diversion; that is, an epidemic disease could lead to unexpected industry restructuring. To examine this, based on data on 110 WHO members from 1996 to 2018, we use a fixed-effect panel model supported by the Hausman Test to empirically identify whether epidemic diseases can cause trade shocks and trade diversion. We find: First, epidemic disease can lead to negative shocks to a country's trade growth and its ratio of worldwide trade. Second, with a longer epidemic, the probability of the trade diversion effect increases. Our results hold even after considering country heterogeneity. This presents a considerable concern about the shock of COVID-19 lasting further. Many countries are not just facing the problem of temporary trade shocks, but also the challenge of trade diversions. In particular, the probability of trade diversions is increasing rapidly, especially for late-developed countries due to their lack of epidemic containment and vaccine-producing capabilities. Even middle and high income countries cannot ignore global industry chain restructuring. Forward-looking policies should be implemented in advance; it may be too late when long-term trade damage is shown.

摘要

新冠疫情对全球贸易造成了巨大冲击,使过去几年成为一个特殊阶段。即使在正常时期,传染病也会对特定国家的贸易造成冲击,尽管其影响程度不及新冠疫情。对于某些贸易冲击,疾病传播结束后情况会恢复正常;而对于某些冲击则不会。因此,由于贸易转移,某些特定国家的贸易比例有时会发生变化;也就是说,传染病可能导致意想不到的产业结构调整。为了检验这一点,我们根据世界卫生组织 110 个成员国 1996 年至 2018 年的数据,使用固定效应面板模型,并通过豪斯曼检验进行实证分析,以确定传染病是否会导致贸易冲击和贸易转移。结果表明:首先,传染病会对一国贸易增长及其在全球贸易中的占比产生负面影响。其次,随着疫情持续时间的延长,贸易转移效应的概率会增加。即使考虑到国家异质性,我们的结果仍然成立。这表明人们对新冠疫情持续时间延长的冲击感到相当担忧。许多国家不仅面临着暂时的贸易冲击问题,还面临着贸易转移的挑战。特别是,由于缺乏传染病防控和疫苗生产能力,后发国家的贸易转移概率正在迅速上升。即使是中高收入国家也不能忽视全球产业链重组。应该提前实施前瞻性政策,等到长期贸易受损显现出来可能就为时已晚。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a9bc/11142499/7be628d92e08/pone.0301828.g001.jpg

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