Faculty of Modern Agricultural Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, PR China; Yunnan Provincial Field Scientific Observation and Research Station on Water-Soil-Crop System in Seasonal Arid Region, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, PR China; Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory of High-effciency Water Use and Green Production of Characteristic Crops in Universities, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, PR China.
Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, PR China.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Nov 1;949:175038. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175038. Epub 2024 Jul 24.
Rice is one of the world's major food crops. Changes in major climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, solar radiation and carbon dioxide (CO) concentration have an important impact on rice growth and yield. However, many of the current studies that predict the impact of future climate change on rice yield are affected by uncertainties such as climate models, climate scenarios, model parameters and structure, and showing great differences. This study was based on the assessment results of the impact of climate change on rice in the future of 111 published literature, and comprehensively analyzed the impact and uncertainty of climate change on rice yield. This study utilized local polynomial (Loess) regression analysis to investigate the impact of changes in mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation on relative rice yield variations within a complete dataset. A linear mixed-effects model was used to quantitatively analyze the relationships between the restricted datasets. The qualitative analysis based on the entire dataset revealed that rice yields decreased with increasing average temperature. The precipitation changed between 0 and 25 %, it was conducive to the stable production of rice, and when the precipitation changed >25 %, it would cause rice yield reduction. The change of solar radiation was less than -1.15 %, the rice yield increases with the increase of solar radiation, and when the change of solar radiation exceeds -1.15 %, the rice yield decreases. Elevated CO concentrations and management practices could mitigate the negative effects of climate change. The results of a quantitative analysis utilizing the mixed effects model revealed that average temperature, precipitation, CO concentration, and adaptation methods all had a substantial impact on rice production, and elevated CO concentrations and management practices could exert positive influences on rice production. For every 1 °C and 1 % increase in average temperature and precipitation, rice yield decreased by 3.85 % and 0.56 %, respectively. For every 100 ppm increase in CO concentration, rice yield increased by 7.1 %. The variation of rice yield under different climate models, study sites and climate scenarios had significant variability. Elevated CO concentrations and management practices could compensate for the negative effects of climate change, benefiting rice production. This study comprehensively collected and analyzed a wide range of literature and research, which provides an in-depth understanding of the impacts of climate change on rice production and informs future research and policy development.
水稻是世界主要粮食作物之一。温度、降水、太阳辐射和二氧化碳（CO）浓度等主要气候因素的变化，对水稻生长和产量有重要影响。然而，目前许多预测未来气候变化对水稻产量影响的研究受到气候模型、气候情景、模型参数和结构等不确定性的影响，表现出很大的差异。本研究基于 111 篇已发表文献对未来气候变化对水稻影响的评估结果，综合分析了气候变化对水稻产量的影响及其不确定性。本研究利用局部多项式（Loess）回归分析，研究了平均温度、最低温度、最高温度、太阳辐射和降水变化对完整数据集内相对水稻产量变化的影响。采用线性混合效应模型对受限制数据集之间的关系进行定量分析。基于整个数据集的定性分析表明，随着平均温度的升高，水稻产量降低。降水在 0%到 25%之间变化有利于水稻稳定生产，而降水变化超过 25%时会导致水稻产量减少。太阳辐射变化小于-1.15%时，水稻产量随太阳辐射增加而增加，而太阳辐射变化超过-1.15%时，水稻产量下降。提高 CO 浓度和管理措施可以减轻气候变化的负面影响。利用混合效应模型进行的定量分析结果表明，平均温度、降水、CO 浓度和适应方法都对水稻生产有重大影响，提高 CO 浓度和管理措施对水稻生产有积极影响。平均温度和降水每升高 1°C和 1%，水稻产量分别降低 3.85%和 0.56%。CO 浓度每增加 100ppm，水稻产量增加 7.1%。不同气候模型、研究地点和气候情景下的水稻产量变化具有显著的可变性。提高 CO 浓度和管理措施可以弥补气候变化的负面影响，有利于水稻生产。本研究全面收集和分析了广泛的文献和研究，深入了解了气候变化对水稻生产的影响，并为未来的研究和政策制定提供了信息。
