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未来气候变化与普通吸血蝠(Desmodus rotundus)的分布变化

Future climate change and the distributional shift of the common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus.

作者信息

Van de Vuurst Paige, Gohlke Julia M, Escobar Luis E

机构信息

Translational Biology, Medicine, and Health Program, Virginia Tech Graduate School, Blacksburg, VA, USA.

Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Feb 18;15(1):5989. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-87977-7.

Abstract

Interactions among humans, livestock, and wildlife within disturbed ecosystems, such as those impacted by climate change, can facilitate pathogen spillover transmission and increase disease emergence risks. The study of future climate change impacts on the distribution of free-ranging bats is therefore relevant for forecasting potential disease burden. This study used current and future climate data and historic occurrence locations of the vampire bat species Desmodus rotundus, a reservoir of the rabies virus to assess the potential impacts of climate change on disease reservoir distribution. Analyses included a comprehensive comparison of different climate change periods, carbon emission scenarios, and global circulation models (GCMs) on final model outputs. Models revealed that, although climatic scenarios and GCMs used have a significant influence on model outputs, there was a consistent signal of range expansion across the future climates analyzed. Areas suitable for D. rotundus range expansion include the southern United States and south-central portions of Argentina and Chile. Certain areas in the Amazon Rainforest, which currently rests at the geographic center of D. rotundus' range, may become climatically unsuitable for this species within the context of niche conservatism. While the impacts of rabies virus transmitted by D. rotundus on livestock are well known, an expansion of D. rotundus into novel areas may impact new mammalian species and livestock with unexpected consequences. Some areas in the Americas may benefit from an assessment of their preparedness to deal with an expected D. rotundus range expansion.

摘要

在受干扰的生态系统中,如受气候变化影响的生态系统,人类、牲畜和野生动物之间的相互作用会促进病原体的溢出传播,并增加疾病出现的风险。因此,研究未来气候变化对自由放养蝙蝠分布的影响对于预测潜在的疾病负担具有重要意义。本研究利用当前和未来的气候数据以及狂犬病病毒宿主物种圆叶吸血蝠的历史出现地点,评估气候变化对疾病宿主分布的潜在影响。分析包括对不同气候变化时期、碳排放情景和全球环流模型(GCMs)对最终模型输出的全面比较。模型显示,尽管所使用的气候情景和GCMs对模型输出有重大影响,但在所分析的未来气候中存在范围扩张的一致信号。适合圆叶吸血蝠范围扩张的地区包括美国南部以及阿根廷和智利的中南部。在生态位保守的背景下,目前位于圆叶吸血蝠分布地理中心的亚马逊雨林的某些地区可能在气候上变得不适合该物种生存。虽然圆叶吸血蝠传播的狂犬病病毒对牲畜的影响是众所周知的,但圆叶吸血蝠向新区域的扩张可能会影响新的哺乳动物物种和牲畜,产生意想不到的后果。美洲的一些地区可能会受益于对其应对圆叶吸血蝠预期范围扩张的准备情况的评估。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2960/11836402/1ce822bd1d4f/41598_2025_87977_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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