基于全球疾病负担研究(GBD)2021分析的1990年至2021年全球、区域和国家女性不孕症负担及趋势,并预测至2050年。
Global, regional, and national burden of female infertility and trends from 1990 to 2021 with projections to 2050 based on the GBD 2021 analysis.
作者信息
Liu Jie, Qin Yi, Liu Hui, Liu Yonglin, Yang Yi, Ning Yumei, Ye Huijun
机构信息
Department of Reproductive Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, 310053, China.
Department of Pharmacy, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, 215006, China.
出版信息
Sci Rep. 2025 May 21;15(1):17559. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-01498-x.
Female infertility represents a significant reproductive health issue that critically affects global fertility rates. In this study, we utilized the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021. Initially, we assessed the global burden by the number of female infertility prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), along with the age-standardized rate (ASR) per 100,000 individuals, stratified by age, sociodemographic index (SDI), nationality, and region. Furthermore, linear regression models were employed to examine the temporal trends of disease burden from 1990 to 2021. Cluster analysis facilitated the evaluation of disease burden change patterns across different GBD regions. Lastly, the autoregressive composite moving average model was applied to forecast future disease burdens. In 2021, the global prevalence of female infertility was estimated at 110,089,459, contributing to 6,210,145 DALYs, there was an observed increase of 84.44% in prevalence and 84.43% in DALYs since 1990. The highest burden occurred among individuals aged 35-39, with the most rapid increase observed in the 30-34 age group. The burden of female infertility displayed considerable variability across GBD regions and countries, with areas of high-medium SDI facing elevated risks. Projections indicate a continuing rise in the ASR of prevalence and DALYs for female infertility over the next 2 decades. The global burden of female infertility has intensified from 1990 to 2021, with notable disparities across different SDI regions and countries. Women aged 35-39 face the highest risk, and there is a trend toward earlier onset of infertility.
女性不孕症是一个重大的生殖健康问题,严重影响全球生育率。在本研究中,我们使用了《2021年全球疾病负担(GBD)研究》的最新数据。最初,我们通过女性不孕症患病率和伤残调整生命年(DALYs)的数量,以及每10万人的年龄标准化率(ASR)来评估全球负担,并按年龄、社会人口指数(SDI)、国籍和地区进行分层。此外,我们采用线性回归模型来研究1990年至2021年疾病负担的时间趋势。聚类分析有助于评估不同GBD地区疾病负担的变化模式。最后,应用自回归综合移动平均模型来预测未来的疾病负担。2021年,全球女性不孕症患病率估计为110,089,459例,导致6,210,145个伤残调整生命年,自1990年以来,患病率上升了84.44%,伤残调整生命年上升了84.43%。负担最重的是35-39岁的人群,30-34岁年龄组的增长最为迅速。女性不孕症的负担在不同的GBD地区和国家表现出很大的差异,中高SDI地区面临更高的风险。预测表明,在接下来的20年里,女性不孕症患病率和伤残调整生命年的年龄标准化率将持续上升。从1990年到2021年,全球女性不孕症负担加剧,不同SDI地区和国家之间存在显著差异。35-39岁的女性面临的风险最高,不孕症有提前发病的趋势。