The hospital of the future--planning for change.

This paper describes the hospital planning model developed by the North Eastern Metropolitan Region of the Health Department Victoria to forecast acute public hospital bed-day requirements in the Region. Three age-specific variables: population; separation rate; and length of stay have been used to estimate the level of demand for hospital services. The model also delineates services delivered on a same day or long stay basis. The application of the model to three local government areas demonstrates the importance of population growth and ageing on the type and level of hospital services required and the implications thereof for service delivery and the physical configuration of hospitals.