Haselton M G, Buss D M
Department of Psychology, University of Texas at Austin, 78712, USA.
J Pers Soc Psychol. 2000 Jan;78(1):81-91. doi: 10.1037//0022-3514.78.1.81.
A new theory of cognitive biases, called error management theory (EMT), proposes that psychological mechanisms are designed to be predictably biased when the costs of false-positive and false-negative errors were asymmetrical over evolutionary history. This theory explains known phenomena such as men's overperception of women's sexual intent, and it predicts new biases in social inference such as women's underestimation of men's commitment. In Study 1 (N = 217), the authors documented the commitment underperception effect predicted by EMT. In Study 2 (N = 289), the authors replicated the commitment bias and documented a condition in which men's sexual overperception bias is corrected. Discussion contrasts EMT with the heuristics and biases approach and suggests additional testable hypotheses based on EMT.
一种名为错误管理理论(EMT)的认知偏差新理论提出,当在进化史上假阳性错误和假阴性错误的成本不对称时,心理机制会被设计成具有可预测的偏差。该理论解释了诸如男性对女性性意图的过度感知等已知现象,并且预测了社会推理中的新偏差,比如女性对男性承诺的低估。在研究1(N = 217)中,作者记录了错误管理理论所预测的承诺感知不足效应。在研究2(N = 289)中,作者重复了承诺偏差,并记录了一种男性性过度感知偏差得到纠正的情况。讨论将错误管理理论与启发式和偏差方法进行了对比,并基于错误管理理论提出了其他可检验的假设。