Eberhart L H, Jakobi G, Winterhalter M, Georgieff M
Universitätsklinik für Anästhesiologie Ulm.
Anasthesiol Intensivmed Notfallmed Schmerzther. 2000 Oct;35(10):635-40. doi: 10.1055/s-2000-7364.
In a survey concerning postoperative nausea and vomiting an unexpected high number of the participants stressed the impact of environmental factors, like weather and--even more surprising--the phase of the moon, on the occurrence of postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV). Thus, the aim of this study was to determine the influence of these factors on the incidence of PONV.
On 203 days within the 19-month study period, 2488 patients were followed up for at least 24 hours postoperatively to determine the occurrence of PONV. For each day the actual incidence of PONV was compared with the mean predicted risk of PONV calculated with two risk scores for prediction of PONV (Koivuranta, 1997; Apfel, 1998). 32 days with the most significant difference between actual and predicted incidence of PONV were analysed retrospectively by two biometeorological experts, who were blind to the information whether each day was associated with a high or low incidence of PONV, evaluated the possible impact of the weather of these days. To analyse the influence of the cycle of the moon it was prospectively classified into four different phases.
The two biometeorologists rated 22 out of the presented 32 days correctly. The likelihood p that this rating happened by chance is 0.0251, assuming that the likelihood for predicting each day correctly is 0.5 (independent Bernoulli-experiments, e.g. throwing a coin). However, days with a high or low incidence of PONV were equally distributed within the four phases of the moon (p = 0.97; chi 2-test with Yates' correction).
Results from this analysis suggest that the weather may have some impact on the occurrence of PONV. However, our data do not support the hypothesis that the phases of the moon have any influence on this symptom.
在一项关于术后恶心呕吐的调查中，意外发现大量参与者强调环境因素，如天气，甚至更令人惊讶的是月相对术后恶心呕吐（PONV）发生率的影响。因此，本研究的目的是确定这些因素对PONV发生率的影响。
在19个月的研究期间内的203天，对2488例患者术后至少随访24小时以确定PONV的发生情况。对于每一天，将PONV的实际发生率与用两种预测PONV的风险评分（Koivuranta，1997；Apfel，1998）计算出的PONV平均预测风险进行比较。由两位生物气象专家对实际发生率与预测发生率差异最为显著的32天进行回顾性分析，这两位专家对每天PONV发生率是高还是低的信息不知情，评估这些日子天气的可能影响。为了分析月相对其的影响，前瞻性地将其分为四个不同阶段。
两位生物气象学家对所呈现的32天中的22天评级正确。假设每天正确预测的可能性为0.5（独立伯努利试验，例如抛硬币），那么这种评级偶然发生的概率p为0.0251。然而，PONV高发生率或低发生率的日子在月相的四个阶段中分布均匀（p = 0.97；采用Yates校正的卡方检验）。
该分析结果表明天气可能对PONV的发生有一定影响。然而，我们的数据不支持月相对该症状有任何影响这一假设。
