Jagers op Akkerhuis G
Alterra, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Acta Biotheor. 2001;49(3):171-89. doi: 10.1023/a:1011949326096.
Is it possible to predict future life forms? In this paper it is argued that the answer to this question may well be positive. As a basis for predictions a rationale is used that is derived from historical data, e.g. from a hierarchical classification that ranks all building block systems, that have evolved so far. This classification is based on specific emergent properties that allow stepwise transitions, from low level building blocks to higher level ones. This paper shows how this hierarchy can be used for predicting future life forms. The extrapolations suggest several future neural network organisms. Major aspects of the structures of these organisms are predicted. The results can be considered of fundamental importance for several reasons. Firstly, assuming that the operator hierarchy is a proper basis for predictions, the result yields insight into the structure of future organisms. Secondly, the predictions are not extrapolations of presently observed trends, but are fully integrated with all historical system transitions in evolution. Thirdly, the extrapolations suggest the structures of intelligences that, one day, will possess more powerful brains than human beings. This study ends with a discussion of possibilities for falsification of the present theory, the implications of the present predictions in relation to recent developments in artificial intelligence and the philosophical implications of the role of humanity in evolution with regard to the creation of future neural network organisms.
有可能预测未来的生命形式吗?本文认为这个问题的答案很可能是肯定的。作为预测的基础,我们使用了一种从历史数据中推导出来的基本原理,例如从对迄今为止进化出的所有构建模块系统进行的层次分类中推导出来的。这种分类基于特定的涌现特性,这些特性允许从低级构建模块到高级构建模块的逐步转变。本文展示了如何利用这种层次结构来预测未来的生命形式。推断结果表明了几种未来的神经网络生物。预测了这些生物结构的主要方面。这些结果在几个方面具有至关重要的意义。首先,假设操作层次结构是预测的合适基础,那么结果能让我们深入了解未来生物的结构。其次,这些预测并非当前观察到的趋势的外推,而是与进化过程中所有历史系统转变完全整合在一起的。第三,这些推断表明了未来某天将会拥有比人类更强大大脑的智能生物的结构。这项研究最后讨论了证伪当前理论的可能性、当前预测与人工智能最新发展的关系以及人类在进化中对于未来神经网络生物的创造所起作用的哲学意义。