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化学品事故风险评估的信息不确定性。

Informational uncertainties of risk assessment about accidents of chemicals.

作者信息

Zhang Y X

机构信息

Suzhou Institute of Urban Construction and Environmental Protection, Suzhou 215011, China.

出版信息

J Environ Sci (China). 2001 Jan;13(1):69-74.

Abstract

An analysis system of informational uncertainties for accidental risk assessment of chemicals is introduced. Statistical test methods and fuzzy sets method can do the quantitative analysis of the input parameters. The uncertainties of the model can be used by quantitative compared method for the leakage accidents of chemicals. The estimation of the leaking time is important for discussing accidental source term. The uncertain analyses of the release accident for pipeline gas (CO) liquid chlorine and liquid propane gas (LPG) have been discussed.

摘要

介绍了一种用于化学品事故风险评估的信息不确定性分析系统。统计测试方法和模糊集方法可对输入参数进行定量分析。对于化学品泄漏事故,可采用定量比较方法利用模型的不确定性。泄漏时间的估计对于讨论事故源项很重要。已对管道煤气(CO)、液氯和液化石油气(LPG)的泄漏事故进行了不确定性分析。

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