对“老年保障假说”的重新审视。

The "old age security hypothesis" reconsidered.

作者信息

Nerlove M, Razin A, Sadka E

出版信息

J Dev Econ. 1985 Aug;18(2-3):243-52. doi: 10.1016/0304-3878(85)90056-2.

Abstract

"That the introduction of a means for transferring present to future consumption other than children in a developing country will reduce the rate of population growth is shown to depend crucially on the assumption that parents do not care about the numbers or the welfare of the children they have. When parents do care, the conclusion no longer unambiguously follows because the new means for providing for parents' old age leads to a positive income effect."

摘要

在发展中国家，引入一种除子女之外的将当前资源转移至未来消费的方式会降低人口增长率，这一点被证明关键取决于这样一个假设：即父母并不关心他们所拥有子女的数量或福利。当父母确实关心时，该结论就不再必然成立，因为这种为父母养老提供保障的新方式会产生正向的收入效应。