印度城乡人口迁移动态：1960 - 1981年

Dynamics of rural-urban migration in India: 1960-1981.

作者信息

Becker C M, Mills E S, Williamson J G

出版信息

Indian J Quant Econ. 1986;2(1):1-43.

Abstract

"This paper analyzes a multi-sectoral simulation model of the Indian economy designed to isolate the sources of Indian economic growth and urbanization since 1960. The model shares many common traits with other computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models, and its underlying framework is neoclassical. The model stresses spatial issues so that it can provide predictions on rural/urban labor demands, and hence on migration flows. The central issue we seek to evaluate is whether a neoclassical development paradigm can explain adequately the somewhat paradoxical patterns of urbanization and economic growth observed in India since 1960. Our conclusion is a qualified, affirmative response, based on the model's ability to replicate key macroeconomic variables."

摘要

本文分析了一个印度经济的多部门模拟模型，该模型旨在找出1960年以来印度经济增长和城市化的根源。该模型与其他可计算一般均衡（CGE）模拟模型有许多共同特征，其基本框架是新古典主义的。该模型强调空间问题，以便能够预测农村/城市劳动力需求，进而预测移民流动。我们试图评估的核心问题是，新古典主义发展范式能否充分解释自1960年以来在印度观察到的城市化和经济增长的有些矛盾的模式。基于该模型复制关键宏观经济变量的能力，我们的结论是一个有条件的肯定回答。