Wirakartakusumah M D
Majalah Demografi Indones. 1988 Jun;15(29):37-73.
This paper examines the effects of public health, family planning, education, electrification, and water supply programs on fertility, child mortality, and school enrollment decisions of rural households in East Java, Indonesia. The theoretical model assumes that parents maximize a utility function, subject to 1) a budget constraint that equates income with expenditures on children (including schooling and health inputs), and 2) a production function that relates health inputs to child survival possibilities. Public programs affect prices of contraceptives, schooling and health inputs, and environmental conditions that in turn affect child survival. Data are taken from the 1980 East Java Population Survey, the Socio-economic Survey, and the Detailed Village Census. The final sample consists of 3170 rural households with married women of childbearing age. Ordinary least squares and logit regressions of recent fertility, child mortality, and school enrollment on program and household variables yielded the following findings. 1) The presence of maternal and child health clinics reduced fertility but not mortality. 2) The presence of public health centers strongly reduced mortality but not fertility. 3) The presence of contraceptive distribution centers had no effect on fertility. 4) School attendance rates were influenced positively by the availability of primary and secondary schools. 5) Health and family planning programs had no effects on schooling. 6) The availability of public latrines reduced fertility and mortality. 7) The water supply variable did not affect the dependent variables when ordinary least squares techniques were applied but had statistically significant impact when logit methods were used. 8) Electricity supply had little effect on the dependent variables. 9) The mother's schooling had a strong positive correlation with children's schooling but no effect on fertility or mortality. 10) Household expenditures were related positively to school attendance and negatively to mortality. 11) There was little or no interaction between household variables and presence of government programs. 12) Subprovincial area measures of service availability appeared more appropriate for public health and family planning services, while village-level measures appeared more appropriate for schooling.
本文考察了公共卫生、计划生育、教育、电气化及供水项目对印度尼西亚东爪哇农村家庭生育、儿童死亡率及入学决策的影响。理论模型假定父母使效用函数最大化,需满足:1)预算约束,即收入等于子女支出(包括教育和健康投入);2)生产函数,将健康投入与儿童存活可能性联系起来。公共项目影响避孕药具、教育和健康投入的价格以及环境条件,进而影响儿童存活。数据取自1980年东爪哇人口调查、社会经济调查及详细村庄普查。最终样本包括3170户有育龄已婚妇女的农村家庭。对项目和家庭变量进行近期生育、儿童死亡率及入学情况的普通最小二乘法和逻辑回归分析,得出以下结果。1)妇幼保健诊所的设立降低了生育率,但未降低死亡率。2)公共卫生中心的设立大幅降低了死亡率,但未降低生育率。3)避孕药具发放中心的设立对生育率没有影响。4)中小学的可获得性对入学率有积极影响。5)健康和计划生育项目对教育没有影响。6)公共厕所的可获得性降低了生育率和死亡率。7)应用普通最小二乘法时,供水变量对因变量没有影响,但使用逻辑回归方法时具有统计学显著影响。8)供电对因变量影响很小。9)母亲的教育程度与子女教育程度呈强正相关,但对生育率或死亡率没有影响。10)家庭支出与入学率呈正相关,与死亡率呈负相关。11)家庭变量与政府项目的存在之间几乎没有或没有相互作用。12)省级以下地区的服务可获得性指标似乎更适用于公共卫生和计划生育服务,而村级指标似乎更适用于教育。