Menard S
Stud Comp Int Dev. 1990 Summer;25(2):60-90. doi: 10.1007/BF02687166.
Cross-national models of fertility, family planning, and development commonly assume that there are no reciprocal effect between fertility and other variables in the model and that when path models are used, there are no reciprocal or nonrecursive effects among any set of variables in the model. The present study tests for nonrecursiveness using 2-wave panel data, and finds that nonrecursive effects are present among variables commonly used in model of fertility, family planning, and development. In addition, the pattern of relationships found has implications for the explanation of the relationship between mortality and fertility in demographic transition theory.
生育、计划生育与发展的跨国模型通常假定,模型中生育与其他变量之间不存在相互影响,并且在使用路径模型时,模型中任何一组变量之间都不存在相互或非递归影响。本研究使用两期面板数据检验非递归性,发现生育、计划生育与发展模型中常用的变量之间存在非递归影响。此外,所发现的关系模式对人口转变理论中死亡率与生育之间关系的解释具有启示意义。