Plane D A, Rogerson P A
Environ Plan A. 1985 Feb;17(2):185-98. doi: 10.1068/a170185.
"A class of spatial economic-demographic forecasting models is proposed. The models combine elements of traditional Markov and economic gravity models. A base-period probability structure is modified by the changing relative distribution of economic opportunity. Estimation issues are addressed, and an empirical application to US interstate migration during the late 1970s is described. It is contended that the framework represents a merger of past demographic and economic modeling traditions in a spatial interaction framework."
提出了一类空间经济人口预测模型。这些模型结合了传统马尔可夫模型和经济引力模型的元素。基期概率结构会因经济机会相对分布的变化而改变。讨论了估计问题，并描述了对20世纪70年代末美国州际移民的实证应用。有人认为，该框架代表了过去人口统计学和经济建模传统在空间相互作用框架中的融合。
