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过去和近期对各年龄段死亡率进行建模的尝试。

Past and recent attempts to model mortality at all ages.

作者信息

Hartmann M

出版信息

J Off Stat. 1987;3(1):19-36.

Abstract

"Most laws of mortality are partial in the sense that they apply only to a broad age group and not to all ages. This paper focuses on three laws of mortality that apply to all ages. Two of them were developed by the actuaries Thiele and Wittstein in the late 19th century. The third, developed by Heligman and Pollard, is of recent origin. The three laws are discussed with references to Scandinavian mortality data. The results suggest that the most recently proposed law can be used for generation of model life tables, for making population projections, simulations, and other statistical work where there is a need for a realistic model of human mortality."

摘要

大多数死亡率法则都具有局限性,因为它们仅适用于某一宽泛的年龄组,而非所有年龄段。本文聚焦于适用于所有年龄段的三条死亡率法则。其中两条是由精算师蒂勒和维特斯坦在19世纪后期提出的。第三条由赫利希曼和波拉德提出,是最近才出现的。文中结合斯堪的纳维亚半岛的死亡率数据对这三条法则进行了讨论。结果表明,最新提出的这条法则可用于生成模型生命表、进行人口预测、模拟以及其他需要人类死亡率现实模型的统计工作。

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