Hwang Stephen W, Li Jianli, Gupta Rajesh, Chien Vince, Martin Rochelle E
Inner City Health Research Unit and the Division of General Internal Medicine, St. Michael's Hospital and University of Toronto, Toronto, ON.
CMAJ. 2003 Feb 18;168(4):417-20.
Patients who leave hospital against medical advice (AMA) may be at risk of adverse health outcomes and readmission. In this study we examined rates of readmission and predictors of readmission among patients leaving hospital AMA.
We prospectively studied 97 consecutive patients who left the general medicine service of an urban teaching hospital AMA. Each patient was matched according to age, sex and primary diagnosis with a control patient who was discharged routinely. Readmission rates were examined using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Regression models were used to test the hypothesis that readmissions among patients discharged AMA followed a biphasic curve.
Patients who left AMA were much more likely than the control patients to be readmitted within 15 days (21% v. 3%, p < 0.001). Readmissions occurred at an accelerated pace during the first 15 days, followed by a 75-day period during which readmissions occurred at a rate comparable to that among the control patients. Among the patients who left AMA, being male and having a history of alcohol abuse were significant predictors of readmission within 15 days; however, these characteristics were common among the patients who left AMA. In the Cox proportional hazard models, leaving AMA was the only significant predictor of readmission (adjusted hazard ratio 2.5, 95% confidence interval 1.4-4.4).
The significantly increased risk of readmission among general medicine patients who leave hospital AMA is concentrated in the first 2 weeks after discharge. However, it is difficult to identify which patients will likely be readmitted.
违反医嘱自行出院(AMA)的患者可能面临不良健康后果和再次入院的风险。在本研究中,我们调查了AMA出院患者的再次入院率及再次入院的预测因素。
我们前瞻性地研究了一家城市教学医院普通内科连续97例AMA出院的患者。根据年龄、性别和主要诊断,为每位患者匹配一名常规出院的对照患者。使用Kaplan-Meier分析来检查再次入院率。回归模型用于检验AMA出院患者的再次入院遵循双相曲线这一假设。
AMA出院的患者比对照患者在15天内再次入院的可能性要高得多(21%对3%,p<0.001)。再次入院在最初15天内加速发生,随后是75天的时间段,在此期间再次入院的发生率与对照患者相当。在AMA出院的患者中,男性和有酗酒史是15天内再次入院的显著预测因素;然而,这些特征在AMA出院的患者中很常见。在Cox比例风险模型中,AMA出院是再次入院的唯一显著预测因素(调整后的风险比为2.5,95%置信区间为1.4 - 4.4)。
普通内科AMA出院患者再次入院风险显著增加集中在出院后的前2周。然而,很难确定哪些患者可能会再次入院。