Horiuchi S
Rockefeller University, New York, NY 10021-6399.
Science. 1992 Aug 7;257(5071):761-5. doi: 10.1126/science.1496396.
The world human population growth rate after World War II passed through three phases: the rise in the 1950s and 1960s, the fall (though still at a positive level) in the 1970s, and the plateau in the 1980s. The rise was produced by the global decline in death rates, the fall was mainly due to the reduction of fertility in a number of developing countries, and the stagnation of growth rate decline was attributable to three major factors. First, substantial fertility declines started around 1970 and stalled around 1980 in both China and India. Second, the age structure of population changed in favor of higher birth rates. Third, although fertility started to decline significantly around 1970 mainly in East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, few countries have begun fertility declines since then. Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have not started substantial fertility reductions, deepening the gap between developing countries that are moving to lower fertility levels and those that are left behind.
第二次世界大战后,世界人口增长率经历了三个阶段:20世纪50年代和60年代的上升阶段,20世纪70年代的下降阶段(尽管仍为正增长),以及20世纪80年代的平稳阶段。人口增长上升是由全球死亡率下降导致的,下降主要是由于一些发展中国家生育率降低,而增长率下降停滞则归因于三个主要因素。首先,中国和印度的生育率大幅下降始于1970年左右,并在1980年左右停滞。其次,人口年龄结构变化有利于更高的出生率。第三,尽管生育率主要在1970年左右开始在东亚、东南亚和拉丁美洲显著下降,但从那时起很少有国家开始出现生育率下降。撒哈拉以南非洲和南亚的许多国家尚未开始大幅降低生育率,这加深了向较低生育率水平转变的发展中国家与落后国家之间的差距。