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用于评估一起双重谋杀案中纤维证据的贝叶斯框架——病例报告

Bayesian framework for the evaluation of fiber evidence in a double murder--a case report.

作者信息

Causin Valerio, Schiavone Sergio, Marigo Antonio, Carresi Pietro

机构信息

Dipartimento di Scienze Chimiche dell'Università, via Loredan 4, 35131 Padova, Italy.

出版信息

Forensic Sci Int. 2004 May 10;141(2-3):159-70. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2004.01.009.

Abstract

Fiber evidence found on a suspect vehicle was the only useful trace to reconstruct the dynamics of the transportation of two corpses. Optical microscopy, UV-Vis microspectrophotometry and infrared analysis were employed to compare fibers recovered in the trunk of a car to those of the blankets composing the wrapping in which the victims had been hidden. A "pseudo-1:1" taping permitted to reconstruct the spatial distribution of the traces and to further strengthen the support to one of the hypotheses. The Likelihood Ratio (LR) was calculated, in order to quantify the support given by forensic evidence to the explanations proposed. A generalization of the Likelihood Ratio equation to cases analogous to this has been derived. Fibers were the only traces that helped in the corroboration of the crime scenario, being absent any DNA, fingerprints and ballistic evidence.

摘要

在一辆嫌疑车辆上发现的纤维证据是重建两具尸体运输动态的唯一有用痕迹。采用光学显微镜、紫外可见显微分光光度法和红外分析,将从汽车后备箱中找到的纤维与构成包裹受害者的毯子的纤维进行比较。“伪1:1”胶带粘贴法有助于重建痕迹的空间分布,并进一步加强对其中一个假设的支持。计算了似然比(LR),以量化法医证据对所提出解释的支持程度。已推导出似然比方程在此类类似案件中的推广形式。由于没有任何DNA、指纹和弹道证据,纤维是唯一有助于证实犯罪情节的痕迹。

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