Suppr超能文献

社会保障退休福利的终身分配效应。

Lifetime distributional effects of Social Security retirement benefits.

作者信息

Smith Karen, Toder Eric, Iams Howard

出版信息

Soc Secur Bull. 2003;65(1):33-61.

Abstract

This article presents three measures of the distribution of actual and projected net benefits (benefits minus payroll taxes) from Social Security's Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) for people born between 1931 and 1960. The results are based on simulations with the Social Security Administration's Model of Income in the Near Term (MINT), which projects retirement income through 2020. The base sample for MINT is the U.S. Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation panels for 1990 to 1993, matched with Social Security administrative records. The study population is grouped into 5-year birth cohorts and then ranked by economic status in three ways. First, the population is divided into five groups on the basis of individual lifetime covered earnings, and their lifetime present values of OASI benefits received and payroll taxes paid are calculated. By this measure, OASI provides much higher benefits to the lowest quintile of earners than to other groups, but it becomes less redistributive toward lower earners in more recent birth cohorts. Second, people are ranked by shared lifetime covered earnings, and the values of shared benefits received and payroll taxes paid are computed. Individuals are assumed to split covered earnings, benefits, and payroll taxes with their spouses in the years they are married. By the shared covered earnings measure, OASI is still much more favorable to persons in the lower income quintiles, although to a lesser degree than when people are ranked by individual covered earnings. OASI becomes more progressive among recent cohorts, even as net lifetime benefits decline for the entire population. Finally, individuals are ranked on the basis of their shared permanent income from age 62, when they become eligible for early retirement benefits, until death. Their annual Social Security benefits are compared with the benefits they would have received if they had saved their payroll taxes in individual accounts and used the proceeds to buy either of two annuities that provide level payments from age 62 until death: a unisex annuity that is based on the average life expectancy of the birth cohort or an age-adjusted annuity that is based on the worker's own life expectancy. On the permanent income measure, OASI is generally more favorable to people in higher income quintiles. Moreover, it is particularly unfavorable to those in the lowest quintile. Because people in the lowest quintile have a shorter life expectancy, they receive OASI benefits for a shorter period. This group would receive greater benefits in retirement if they invested their payroll taxes in the age-adjusted annuity. OASI is more favorable to them than the unisex annuity, however, OASI is becoming more progressive in that the net benefits it provides drop more rapidly among higher income quintiles than lower ones. This article also examines how OASI affects individuals by educational attainment, race, and sex. On both the lifetime covered earnings and the permanent income measures, OASI is more favorable to workers with less education and more favorable to women. The results by race and ethnicity are mixed. When people are ranked by the present value of their shared lifetime covered earnings, OASI appears more favorable to non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics than to non-Hispanic whites. When people are ranked by shared permanent income in retirement, however, OASI produces negative returns for both non-Hispanic blacks and non-Hispanic whites in the most recent birth cohorts, with non-Hispanic blacks faring relatively worse. The changes across cohorts occur partly because of changes in tax rates and benefits, but more importantly because of changing demographics and earnings patterns of the workforce. Of particular importance is the increasing share of beneficiaries who receive worker benefits instead of auxiliary benefits as wives or widows. OASI benefits are based on the lifetime covered earnings of current or former married couples, as well as on earned retirement benefits of individuals. The reduced importance of auxiliary benefits (due to the higher lifetime covered earnings of women) and the increased proportion of divorced retirees make OASI more progressive--even as net benefits decline--for current and future cohorts than for cohorts who retired in the 1990s. Analysis of these findings suggests that simulations of policy changes in Social Security must take into account the decreasing importance of auxiliary benefits across birth cohorts and the complex changes in individuals' marital histories.

摘要

本文介绍了针对1931年至1960年出生人群的社会保障老年和遗属保险(OASI)实际及预计净收益(收益减去工资税)分布的三项衡量指标。结果基于社会保障管理局的近期收入模型(MINT)模拟得出,该模型预测了截至2020年的退休收入。MINT的基础样本是美国人口普查局1990年至1993年的收入与项目参与调查小组,并与社会保障行政记录相匹配。研究人群按5年出生队列分组,然后通过三种方式按经济状况排名。首先,根据个人终身覆盖收入将人群分为五组,并计算他们领取的OASI福利和缴纳的工资税的终身现值。通过这一衡量指标,OASI向收入最低的五分之一人群提供的福利远高于其他群体,但在最近出生的队列中,它对低收入者的再分配作用减弱。其次,按共享终身覆盖收入对人群进行排名,并计算共享福利和缴纳的工资税的价值。假设个人在结婚年份与配偶分摊覆盖收入、福利和工资税。按共享覆盖收入衡量,OASI对低收入五分之一人群仍然更为有利,尽管程度低于按个人覆盖收入排名时。在最近的队列中,OASI变得更加累进,即使整个人口的终身净福利有所下降。最后,个人从62岁(此时他们有资格领取提前退休福利)到死亡,按其共享永久收入进行排名。将他们的年度社会保障福利与如果他们将工资税存入个人账户并用所得购买两种年金(从62岁到死亡提供等额支付)中的任何一种所获得的福利进行比较:一种是基于出生队列平均预期寿命的不分性别的年金,另一种是基于工人自身预期寿命的年龄调整年金。按永久收入衡量,OASI通常对高收入五分之一人群更为有利。此外,它对最低五分之一人群尤其不利。因为最低五分之一人群的预期寿命较短,他们领取OASI福利的时间较短。如果这个群体将工资税投资于年龄调整年金,他们在退休时将获得更多福利。OASI对他们比对不分性别的年金更有利,然而,OASI正变得更加累进,因为它提供的净福利在高收入五分之一人群中下降得比低收入人群更快。本文还研究了OASI如何按教育程度、种族和性别影响个人。在终身覆盖收入和永久收入衡量指标上,OASI对受教育程度较低的工人更有利,对女性也更有利。种族和族裔方面的结果喜忧参半。当按共享终身覆盖收入的现值对人群进行排名时,OASI对非西班牙裔黑人和西班牙裔似乎比对非西班牙裔白人更有利。然而,当按退休时的共享永久收入对人群进行排名时,在最近出生的队列中,OASI对非西班牙裔黑人和非西班牙裔白人都产生了负回报,非西班牙裔黑人的情况相对更糟。不同队列之间的变化部分是由于税率和福利的变化,但更重要的是由于劳动力人口结构和收入模式的变化。特别重要的是,领取工人福利而非作为妻子或寡妇的辅助福利的受益人比例不断增加。OASI福利基于当前或以前已婚夫妇的终身覆盖收入,以及个人的应计退休福利。辅助福利重要性的降低(由于女性终身覆盖收入较高)和离婚退休人员比例的增加,使得OASI对当前和未来队列比20世纪90年代退休的队列更具累进性——即使净福利下降。对这些结果的分析表明,社会保障政策变化的模拟必须考虑到不同出生队列中辅助福利重要性的下降以及个人婚姻历史的复杂变化。

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍。

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

文档翻译

学术文献翻译模型,支持多种主流文档格式。

立即体验