Wearing Helen J, Rohani Pejman, Cameron Tom C, Sait Steven M
Institute of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602. USA.
Am Nat. 2004 Oct;164(4):543-58. doi: 10.1086/424040. Epub 2004 Sep 13.
Few age-structured models of species dynamics incorporate variability and uncertainty in population processes. Motivated by laboratory data for an insect and its parasitoid, we investigate whether such assumptions are appropriate when considering the population dynamics of a single species and its interaction with a natural enemy. Specifically, we examine the effects of developmental variability and demographic stochasticity on different types of cyclic dynamics predicted by traditional models. We show that predictions based on the deterministic fixed-development approach are differentially sensitive to variability and noise in key life stages. In particular, we find that the demonstration of half-generation cycles in the single-species model and the multigeneration cycles in the host-parasitoid model are sensitive to the introduction of developmental variability and noise, whereas generation cycles are robust to the intrinsic variability and uncertainty that may be found in nature.
很少有物种动态的年龄结构模型考虑到种群过程中的变异性和不确定性。受一种昆虫及其寄生蜂的实验室数据启发,我们研究了在考虑单一物种的种群动态及其与天敌的相互作用时,这些假设是否合适。具体而言,我们研究了发育变异性和人口统计学随机性对传统模型预测的不同类型循环动态的影响。我们表明,基于确定性固定发育方法的预测对关键生命阶段的变异性和噪声具有不同的敏感性。特别是,我们发现单物种模型中的半代周期和寄主 - 寄生蜂模型中的多代周期的表现对发育变异性和噪声的引入很敏感,而世代周期对自然界中可能存在的内在变异性和不确定性具有鲁棒性。