Sloan Frank A, Trogdon Justin G
Center for Health Policy, Law and Management, Duke University, USA.
J Policy Anal Manage. 2004 Aug;23(4):843-55. doi: 10.1002/pam.20050.
In 1998, 46 states and the four major tobacco companies signed the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA), which stipulated that the tobacco companies pay states $206 billion over 25 years and take steps to reduce youth smoking. The remaining states settled separately. We sought to determine the effect of the settlements on demand for cigarettes. Using a nationwide sample from 1990 to 2002, we estimated a model of the decision to smoke cigarettes. The settlements affected smoking primarily through price increases for cigarettes, although there was evidence that other policy instruments influenced smoking rates for younger smokers. By 2002, the settlements had reduced overall smoking rates by 13 percent for ages 18 to 20 and older than 65 and 5 percent for ages 21 to 64.
1998年，46个州与四大烟草公司签署了《主协议和解协议》（MSA），该协议规定烟草公司在25年内向各州支付2060亿美元，并采取措施减少青少年吸烟。其余各州分别达成和解。我们试图确定这些和解协议对香烟需求的影响。利用1990年至2002年的全国性样本，我们估计了一个吸烟决策模型。这些和解协议主要通过提高香烟价格来影响吸烟行为，不过有证据表明其他政策手段也对年轻吸烟者的吸烟率产生了影响。到2002年，这些和解协议使18至20岁以及65岁以上人群的总体吸烟率降低了13%，使21至64岁人群的吸烟率降低了5%。
