Trends in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction and stroke: a 21-year follow-up of the Oslo study.

OBJECTIVES

To explore changes in the incidence of fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke in the same male population over two decades.

DESIGN

Men aged 40-49 born in the years 1923-1932 (N= 16,209) resident in Oslo participated in a cardiovascular screening programme in 1972-1973. Nonfatal cases of MI and stroke were obtained from hospital records and causes of death were ascertained by linkage to Statistics Norway. The closing date was December 31, 1993.

RESULTS

The cohort had a lower mortality rate than the general Norwegian population. First nonfatal and fatal MIs declined in each age and birth cohort during the entire follow-up. The incidence of nonfatal and fatal stroke decreased about 10 years after the initial screening. The risk of men with Rose questionnaire-based symptoms of angina or claudication was between that of healthy men and men with established cardiovascular disease or diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

There has been a reduction in both nonfatal and fatal incident cases of MI and stroke 10 years later indicating a pronounced change in all age groups and a lasting change throughout the period of follow-up. The Rose questionnaire predicted both future stroke and MI.