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百日咳人群动态的大规模比较分析:周期性、同步性及疫苗接种的影响

Large-scale comparative analysis of pertussis population dynamics: periodicity, synchrony, and impact of vaccination.

作者信息

Broutin Hélène, Guégan Jean-François, Elguero Eric, Simondon François, Cazelles Bernard

机构信息

Research Unit 24, Epidemiology and Prevention, Institute of Research for Development, 911 Avenue Agropolis, BP 64501, 34394 Montpellier Cedex 5, France.

出版信息

Am J Epidemiol. 2005 Jun 15;161(12):1159-67. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwi141.

Abstract

Pertussis is a worldwide infectious disease which persists despite massive vaccination campaigns that have gone on for several decades. To obtain an overall view of pertussis dynamics and the impact of vaccination, the authors performed, using the wavelet method, a comparative analysis of pertussis time series in 12 countries to detect and quantify periodicity and synchrony between them. Results showed a clear 3- to 4-year cycle in all countries, but the main finding was that this periodicity was transient. No global pattern in the effect of vaccination on pertussis dynamics was observed, but some spatial synchrony between countries was detected. This large-scale comparative analysis of pertussis dynamics sheds light on the complexity of the multiple interactions involved in global pertussis spatial dynamic patterns. It suggests a need to perform a global survey of human infectious diseases over the long term, which would permit better assessment of the risk of disease outbreaks in the future.

摘要

百日咳是一种全球性传染病,尽管持续数十年的大规模疫苗接种运动仍未能消除该疾病。为全面了解百日咳的流行动态及疫苗接种的影响,作者运用小波方法,对12个国家的百日咳时间序列进行了对比分析,以检测并量化序列间的周期性和同步性。结果显示,所有国家均呈现出明显的3至4年周期,但主要发现是这种周期性是短暂的。未观察到疫苗接种对百日咳流行动态的总体影响模式,但检测到国家间存在一定空间同步性。此次对百日咳流行动态的大规模对比分析揭示了全球百日咳空间动态模式中多种相互作用的复杂性。这表明有必要开展长期的全球人类传染病调查,以便更好地评估未来疾病爆发的风险。

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