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再感染阈值。

The reinfection threshold.

作者信息

Gomes M Gabriela M, White Lisa J, Medley Graham F

机构信息

Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência, Apartado 14, 2781-901 Oeiras, Portugal.

出版信息

J Theor Biol. 2005 Sep 7;236(1):111-3. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2005.03.001. Epub 2005 Apr 18.

Abstract

Thresholds in transmission are responsible for critical changes in infectious disease epidemiology. The epidemic threshold indicates whether infection invades a totally susceptible population. The reinfection threshold indicates whether self-sustained transmission occurs in a population that has developed a degree of partial immunity to the pathogen (by previous infection or vaccination). In models that combine susceptible and partially immune individuals, the reinfection threshold is technically not a bifurcation of equilibria as correctly pointed out by Breban and Blower. However, we show that a branch of equilibria to a reinfection submodel bifurcates from the disease-free equilibrium as transmission crosses this threshold. Consequently, the full model indicates that levels of infection increase by two orders of magnitude and the effect of mass vaccination becomes negligible as transmission increases across the reinfection threshold.

摘要

传播阈值是传染病流行病学发生关键变化的原因。流行阈值表明感染是否侵入完全易感人群。再感染阈值表明在对病原体已产生一定程度部分免疫力的人群(通过先前感染或接种疫苗)中是否发生自我持续传播。在结合了易感个体和部分免疫个体的模型中,正如布雷班和布洛尔正确指出的那样,从技术上讲,再感染阈值不是平衡点的分岔。然而,我们表明,当传播超过这个阈值时,再感染子模型的平衡点分支从无病平衡点分岔出来。因此,完整模型表明,随着传播超过再感染阈值,感染水平增加两个数量级,大规模疫苗接种的效果变得微不足道。

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