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用于估计高效抗逆转录病毒治疗开始对CD4细胞计数影响的边际结构模型。

Marginal structural models for estimating the effect of highly active antiretroviral therapy initiation on CD4 cell count.

作者信息

Cole Stephen R, Hernán Miguel A, Margolick Joseph B, Cohen Mardge H, Robins James M

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.

出版信息

Am J Epidemiol. 2005 Sep 1;162(5):471-8. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwi216. Epub 2005 Aug 2.

Abstract

The effect of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on the evolution of CD4-positive T-lymphocyte (CD4 cell) count among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive participants was estimated using inverse probability-of-treatment-and-censoring (IPTC)-weighted estimation of a marginal structural model. Of 1,763 eligible participants from two US cohort studies followed between 1996 and 2002, 60 percent initiated HAART. The IPTC-weighted estimate of the difference in mean CD4 cell count at 1 year among participants continuously treated versus those never treated was 71 cells/mm3 (95% confidence interval: 47.5, 94.6), which agrees with the reported results of randomized experiments. The corresponding estimate from a standard generalized estimating equations regression model that included baseline and most recent CD4 cell count and HIV type 1 RNA viral load as regressors was 26 cells/mm3 (95% confidence interval: 17.7, 34.3). These results indicate that nonrandomized studies of HIV treatment need to be analyzed with methods (e.g., IPTC-weighted estimation) that, in contrast to standard methods, appropriately adjust for time-varying covariates that are simultaneously confounders and intermediate variables. The 1-year estimate of 71 cells/mm3 was followed by an estimated continued increase of 29 cells/mm3 per year (estimated effect at 6 years: 216 cells/mm3), providing evidence that the large short-term effect found in randomized experiments persists and continues to improve over 6 years.

摘要

采用边际结构模型的逆概率处理与删失(IPTC)加权估计法,评估了高效抗逆转录病毒治疗(HAART)对人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)阳性参与者中CD4阳性T淋巴细胞(CD4细胞)计数变化的影响。在1996年至2002年期间随访的两项美国队列研究的1763名符合条件的参与者中,60%开始接受HAART治疗。持续接受治疗的参与者与从未接受治疗的参与者相比,1年时CD4细胞计数均值差异的IPTC加权估计值为71个细胞/mm³(95%置信区间:47.5,94.6),这与随机试验报告的结果一致。来自标准广义估计方程回归模型(该模型将基线和最近的CD4细胞计数以及HIV-1 RNA病毒载量作为回归变量)的相应估计值为26个细胞/mm³(95%置信区间:17.7,34.3)。这些结果表明,HIV治疗的非随机研究需要采用与标准方法不同的方法(如IPTC加权估计法)进行分析,这些方法能够适当地调整同时作为混杂因素和中间变量的随时间变化的协变量。1年时估计值为71个细胞/mm³,随后估计每年持续增加29个细胞/mm³(6年时估计效应:216个细胞/mm³),这证明了随机试验中发现的较大短期效应持续存在,并在6年中持续改善。

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