Lipowski Adam
Faculty of Physics, Adam Mickiewicz University, 61-614 Pozńan, Poland.
Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2005 May;71(5 Pt 1):052902. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.71.052902. Epub 2005 May 20.
We study a lattice model of a multispecies prey-predator system. Numerical results show that for a small mutation rate the model develops irregular long-period oscillatory behavior with sizeable changes in a number of species. The periodicity of extinctions on Earth was suggested by Raup and Sepkoski [Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 81, 801 (1984)], but thus far is lacking a satisfactory explanation. Our model indicates that this might be a natural consequence of the ecosystem dynamics and not the result of any extraterrestrial cause.
我们研究了一个多物种捕食者 - 猎物系统的晶格模型。数值结果表明,对于较小的突变率,该模型会产生不规则的长周期振荡行为,且物种数量会发生显著变化。地球上物种灭绝的周期性是由劳普和塞普科斯基提出的[《美国国家科学院院刊》81, 801 (1984)],但迄今为止仍缺乏令人满意的解释。我们的模型表明,这可能是生态系统动力学的自然结果,而非任何地外原因导致的。