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肝静脉压力梯度对终末期肝病模型(MELD)时代肝硬化患者生存预测的影响

Influence of hepatic venous pressure gradient on the prediction of survival of patients with cirrhosis in the MELD Era.

作者信息

Ripoll Cristina, Bañares Rafael, Rincón Diego, Catalina María-Vega, Lo Iacono Oreste, Salcedo Magdalena, Clemente Gerardo, Núñez Oscar, Matilla Ana, Molinero Luis-Miguel

机构信息

Sección de Hepatología, Servicio de Aparato Digestivo, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain.

出版信息

Hepatology. 2005 Oct;42(4):793-801. doi: 10.1002/hep.20871.

Abstract

Measurements of portal pressure, usually obtained via the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) may be a prognostic marker in cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of HVPG on survival in patients with cirrhosis in addition to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. We also examined whether inclusion of HVPG in a model with MELD variables improves its prognostic ability. Retrospective analyses of all patients who had HVPG measurements between January 1998 and December 2002 were considered. Proportional hazards Cox models were developed. Prognostic calibrative and discriminative ability of the model was evaluated. In this period, 693 patients had a hepatic hemodynamic study, and 393 patients were included. Survival was significantly worse in those patients with greater HVPG value (univariate HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.08; P = .001). HVPG remained as an independent variable in a model adjusted by MELD, ascites, encephalopathy, and age (multivariate HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.06; P = .05) so that each 1-mmHg increase in HVPG had a 3% increase in death risk. In addition, HVPG as well as MELD score variables and age, significantly contributes to the calibrative predictive capacity of the prognostic model; however, discriminative ability improved only slightly (overall C statistic [95% CI]; MELD score variables: 0.71 [0.62-0.80], MELD score variables, age, and HVPG 0.76: [0.69-0.83]). In conclusion, HVPG has an independent effect on survival in addition to the MELD score. Although inclusion of HVPG and age in a survival predicting model would improve the calibrative ability of MELD, its discriminative ability is not significantly improved.

摘要

通常通过肝静脉压力梯度(HVPG)获得的门静脉压力测量值可能是肝硬化的一个预后标志物。本研究的目的是评估除终末期肝病模型(MELD)评分外,HVPG对肝硬化患者生存的影响。我们还研究了在包含MELD变量的模型中加入HVPG是否能提高其预后能力。对1998年1月至2002年12月期间所有进行过HVPG测量的患者进行回顾性分析。建立了比例风险Cox模型。评估了模型的预后校准和判别能力。在此期间,693例患者进行了肝脏血流动力学研究,其中393例患者被纳入研究。HVPG值较高的患者生存率明显较差(单因素风险比,1.05;95%置信区间,1.02 - 1.08;P = 0.001)。在由MELD、腹水、肝性脑病和年龄调整的模型中,HVPG仍然是一个独立变量(多因素风险比,1.03;95%置信区间,1.00 - 1.06;P = 0.05),因此HVPG每升高1 mmHg,死亡风险增加3%。此外,HVPG以及MELD评分变量和年龄对预后模型的校准预测能力有显著贡献;然而,判别能力仅略有提高(总体C统计量[95%置信区间];MELD评分变量:0.71[0.62 - 0.80],MELD评分变量、年龄和HVPG:0.76[0.69 - 0.83])。总之,除MELD评分外,HVPG对生存有独立影响。虽然在生存预测模型中加入HVPG和年龄会提高MELD的校准能力,但其判别能力没有显著提高。

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