Alley Richard B, Clark Peter U, Huybrechts Philippe, Joughin Ian
Department of Geosciences and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, Deike Building, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
Science. 2005 Oct 21;310(5747):456-60. doi: 10.1126/science.1114613.
Future sea-level rise is an important issue related to the continuing buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with the potential to raise sea level approximately 70 meters if completely melted, dominate uncertainties in projected sea-level change. Freshwater fluxes from these ice sheets also may affect oceanic circulation, contributing to climate change. Observational and modeling advances have reduced many uncertainties related to ice-sheet behavior, but recently detected, rapid ice-marginal changes contributing to sea-level rise may indicate greater ice-sheet sensitivity to warming than previously considered.
未来海平面上升是一个与大气中温室气体浓度持续增加相关的重要问题。格陵兰冰盖和南极冰盖如果完全融化,有可能使海平面上升约70米,它们主导着预计海平面变化的不确定性。来自这些冰盖的淡水通量也可能影响海洋环流,进而导致气候变化。观测和模型方面的进展减少了许多与冰盖行为相关的不确定性,但最近检测到的导致海平面上升的快速冰缘变化可能表明,冰盖对变暖的敏感度比之前认为的更高。