Xevi E, Khan S
CSIRO Land and Water Griffith PMB 3 Griffith, NSW, Australia.
J Environ Manage. 2005 Dec;77(4):269-77. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2005.06.013. Epub 2005 Nov 8.
The management of river basins is complex especially when decisions about environmental flows are considered in addition to those concerning urban and agricultural water demand. The solution to these complex decision problems requires the use of mathematical techniques that are formulated to take into account conflicting objectives. Many optimization models exist for water management systems but there is a knowledge gap in linking bio-economic objectives with the optimum use of all water resources under conflicting demands. The efficient operation and management of a network of nodes comprising storages, canals, river reaches and irrigation districts under environmental flow constraints is challenging. Minimization of risks associated with agricultural production requires accounting for uncertainty involved with climate, environmental policy and markets. Markets and economic criteria determine what crops farmers would like to grow with subsequent effect on water resources and the environment. Due to conflicts between multiple goal requirements and the competing water demands of different sectors, a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework was developed to analyze production targets under physical, biological, economic and environmental constraints. This approach is described by analyzing the conflicts that may arise between profitability, variable costs of production and pumping of groundwater for a hypothetical irrigation area.
流域管理十分复杂,尤其是在考虑环境流量决策的同时,还要兼顾城市和农业用水需求。解决这些复杂的决策问题需要运用数学技术,这些技术旨在考虑相互冲突的目标。水资源管理系统存在许多优化模型,但在将生物经济目标与在相互冲突的需求下所有水资源的最优利用联系起来方面,存在知识差距。在环境流量限制下,对由水库、运河、河段和灌区组成的节点网络进行高效运营和管理具有挑战性。将与农业生产相关的风险降至最低,需要考虑气候、环境政策和市场所涉及的不确定性。市场和经济标准决定了农民想要种植的作物,进而对水资源和环境产生影响。由于多个目标要求之间存在冲突,以及不同部门对水资源的竞争性需求,因此开发了一种多标准决策(MCDM)框架,以分析在物理、生物、经济和环境约束下的生产目标。通过分析一个假设灌溉区在盈利能力、可变生产成本和抽取地下水之间可能出现的冲突,来描述这种方法。