Pielke Roger A
Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Colorado, Campus Box 488, Boulder, Colorado 80309-0488, USA.
Nature. 2005 Dec 22;438(7071):E11; discussion E13. doi: 10.1038/nature04426.
Since the record impact of Hurricane Katrina, attention has focused on understanding trends in hurricanes and their destructive potential. Emanuel reports a marked increase in the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on identification of a trend in an accumulated annual index of power dissipation in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific since the 1970s. If hurricanes are indeed becoming more destructive over time, then this trend should manifest itself in more destruction. However, my analysis of a long-term data set of hurricane losses in the United States shows no upward trend once the data are normalized to remove the effects of societal changes.
自卡特里娜飓风造成创纪录的影响以来,注意力一直集中在了解飓风趋势及其破坏潜力上。伊曼纽尔报告称,基于对自20世纪70年代以来北大西洋和北太平洋西部年累积功率消散指数趋势的识别,飓风的潜在破坏力显著增加。如果飓风确实随着时间推移变得更具破坏性,那么这种趋势应该会表现为更多的破坏。然而,我对美国飓风损失长期数据集的分析表明,一旦对数据进行归一化处理以消除社会变化的影响,就没有上升趋势。