Puvimanasinghe John P A, Takkenberg Johanna J M, Eijkemans Marinus J C, van Herwerden Lex A, Jamieson W R Eric, Grunkemeier Gary L, Habbema J Dik F, Bogers Ad J J C
Department of Cardio-thoracic Surgery, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Eur J Cardiothorac Surg. 2006 Mar;29(3):374-9. doi: 10.1016/j.ejcts.2005.11.037. Epub 2006 Jan 18.
This study aimed at calculating and comparing the long-term outcomes of patients after aortic valve replacement with the Carpentier-Edwards bovine pericardial and porcine supraannular bioprostheses using microsimulation.
We conducted a meta-analysis of eight studies on the Carpentier-Edwards pericardial valves (2,685 patients, 12,250 patient-years) and five studies on the supraannular valves (3,796 patients, 20,127 patient-years) to estimate the occurrence rates of valve-related events. Eighteen-year follow-up data sets were used to construct age-dependent Weibull curves that described their structural valvular deterioration. The estimates were entered into a microsimulation model, which was used to calculate the outcomes of patients after aortic valve replacement.
The annual hazard rates for thrombo-embolism after aortic valve replacement were 1.35% and 1.76% for the pericardial and supraannular valves, respectively. For a 65-year-old male, median time to structural valvular deterioration was 20.1 and 22.2 years while the lifetime risk of reoperation due to structural valvular deterioration was 18.3% and 14.0%, respectively. The life expectancy of the patient was 10.8 and 10.9 years and event-free life expectancy 9.0 and 8.8 years, respectively.
The microsimulation methodology provides insight into the prognosis of a patient after aortic valve replacement with any given valve type. Both the Carpentier-Edwards pericardial and supraannular valve types perform satisfactorily, especially in elderly patients, and show no appreciable difference in long-term outcomes when implanted in the aortic position.
本研究旨在通过微观模拟计算并比较使用Carpentier-Edwards牛心包生物瓣膜和猪主动脉瓣上生物瓣膜进行主动脉瓣置换术后患者的长期预后。
我们对八项关于Carpentier-Edwards心包瓣膜的研究(2685例患者,12250患者年)和五项关于主动脉瓣上瓣膜的研究(3796例患者,20127患者年)进行了荟萃分析,以估计瓣膜相关事件的发生率。使用18年的随访数据集构建年龄依赖性威布尔曲线,描述其瓣膜结构退变情况。将这些估计值输入微观模拟模型,该模型用于计算主动脉瓣置换术后患者的预后。
主动脉瓣置换术后,心包瓣膜和主动脉瓣上瓣膜的血栓栓塞年发生率分别为1.35%和1.76%。对于一名65岁男性,瓣膜结构退变的中位时间分别为20.1年和22.2年,因瓣膜结构退变而再次手术的终生风险分别为18.3%和14.0%。患者的预期寿命分别为10.8年和10.9年,无事件预期寿命分别为9.0年和8.8年。
微观模拟方法为了解使用任何给定瓣膜类型进行主动脉瓣置换术后患者的预后提供了依据。Carpentier-Edwards心包瓣膜和主动脉瓣上瓣膜类型的表现均令人满意,尤其是在老年患者中,并且植入主动脉位置时长期预后无明显差异。