Strum Madeleine, Cook Rich, Thurman James, Ensley Darrell, Pope Anne, Palma Ted, Mason Richard, Michaels Harvey, Shedd Stephen
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, United States.
Sci Total Environ. 2006 Aug 1;366(2-3):590-601. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2005.11.026. Epub 2006 Jan 30.
Projecting a hazardous air pollutant (HAP) emission inventory to future years can provide valuable information for air quality management activities such as prediction of program successes and helping to assess future priorities. We have projected the 1999 National Emission Inventory for HAPs to numerous future years up to 2020 using the following tools and data: the Emissions Modeling System for Hazardous Air Pollutants (EMS-HAP), the National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM), emission reduction information resulting from national standards and economic growth data. This paper discusses these projection tools, the underlying data, limitations and the results. The results presented include total HAP emissions (sum of pollutants) and toxicity-weighted HAP emissions for cancer and respiratory noncancer effects. Weighting emissions by toxicity does not consider fate, transport, or location and behavior of receptor populations and can only be used to estimate relative risks of direct emissions. We show these projections, along with historical emission trends. The data show that stationary source programs under Section 112 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 and mobile source programs which reduce hydrocarbon and particulate matter emissions, as well as toxic emission performance standards for reformulated gasoline, have contributed to and are expected to continue to contribute to large declines in air toxics emissions, in spite of economic and population growth. We have also analyzed the particular HAPs that dominate the source sectors to better understand the historical and future year trends and the differences across sectors.
预测危险空气污染物（HAP）排放清单到未来几年可为空气质量管理活动提供有价值的信息，如预测项目成效并帮助评估未来优先事项。我们使用以下工具和数据将1999年国家HAP排放清单预测到了2020年之前的多个未来年份：危险空气污染物排放建模系统（EMS-HAP）、国家移动源排放清单模型（NMIM）、国家标准产生的减排信息以及经济增长数据。本文讨论了这些预测工具、基础数据、局限性和结果。给出的结果包括HAP总排放量（污染物总和）以及癌症和呼吸非癌症影响的毒性加权HAP排放量。按毒性对排放进行加权不考虑受体人群的归宿、传输或位置及行为，只能用于估计直接排放的相对风险。我们展示了这些预测以及历史排放趋势。数据表明，1990年《清洁空气法修正案》第112条下的固定源项目以及减少碳氢化合物和颗粒物排放的移动源项目，以及新配方汽油的有毒排放性能标准，尽管经济和人口增长，但已促成并预计将继续促成空气有毒物质排放量的大幅下降。我们还分析了主导源部门的特定HAP，以更好地了解历史和未来年份趋势以及各部门之间的差异。
