南非农村地区初级卫生保健可及性与利用情况的建模与理解:基于地理信息系统的探索
Modelling and understanding primary health care accessibility and utilization in rural South Africa: an exploration using a geographical information system.
作者信息
Tanser Frank, Gijsbertsen Brice, Herbst Kobus
机构信息
Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
出版信息
Soc Sci Med. 2006 Aug;63(3):691-705. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2006.01.015. Epub 2006 Mar 29.
Physical access to health care affects a large array of health outcomes, yet meaningfully estimating physical access remains elusive in many developing country contexts where conventional geographical techniques are often not appropriate. We interviewed (and geographically positioned) 23,000 homesteads regarding clinic usage in the Hlabisa health sub-district, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We used a cost analysis within a geographical information system to estimate mean travel time (at any given location) to clinic and to derive the clinic catchments. The model takes into account the proportion of people likely to be using public transport (as a function of estimated walking time to clinic), the quality and distribution of the road network and natural barriers, and was calibrated using reported travel times. We used the model to investigate differences in rural, urban and peri-urban usage of clinics by homesteads in the study area and to quantify the effect of physical access to clinic on usage. We were able to predict the reported clinic used with an accuracy of 91%. The median travel time to nearest clinic is 81 min and 65% of homesteads travel 1h or more to attend the nearest clinic. There was a significant logistic decline in usage with increasing travel time (p < 0.0001). The adjusted odds of a homestead within 30 min of a clinic making use of the clinics were 10 times (adjusted OR = 10; 95 CI 6.9-14.4) those of a homestead in the 90-120 min zone. The adjusted odds of usage of the clinics by urban homesteads were approximately 20/30 times smaller than those of their rural/peri-urban counterparts, respectively, after controlling for systematic differences in travel time to clinic. The estimated median travel time to the district hospital is 170 min. The methodology constitutes a framework for modelling physical access to clinics in many developing country settings.
获得医疗服务的实际可达性会影响一系列健康结果,但在许多发展中国家的背景下,要切实估算实际可达性仍然困难重重,因为传统的地理技术往往并不适用。我们在南非夸祖鲁 - 纳塔尔省赫拉比萨卫生次区,就诊所使用情况对23000个家庭进行了访谈(并确定其地理位置)。我们在地理信息系统内进行成本分析,以估算(在任何给定地点)前往诊所的平均出行时间,并得出诊所的服务范围。该模型考虑了可能使用公共交通的人口比例(作为到诊所估计步行时间的函数)、道路网络的质量和分布以及自然障碍,并使用报告的出行时间进行了校准。我们使用该模型研究了研究区域内农村、城市和城郊家庭对诊所的使用差异,并量化了实际可达性对诊所使用的影响。我们能够以91%的准确率预测报告使用的诊所。到最近诊所的出行时间中位数为81分钟,65%的家庭前往最近诊所的出行时间为1小时或更长。随着出行时间增加,使用量出现显著的逻辑下降(p < 0.0001)。距离诊所30分钟内的家庭使用诊所的调整后几率是90 - 120分钟区域内家庭的10倍(调整后OR = 10;95%置信区间6.9 - 14.4)。在控制了到诊所出行时间的系统差异后,城市家庭使用诊所的调整后几率分别比农村/城郊家庭小约20/30倍。到地区医院的估计出行时间中位数为170分钟。该方法构成了在许多发展中国家环境中对诊所实际可达性进行建模的框架。