减少全球艾滋病毒流行率估计中的不确定性:赞比亚的案例。

Reducing uncertainties in global HIV prevalence estimates: the case of Zambia.

作者信息

Dzekedzeke Kumbutso, Fylkesnes Knut

机构信息

Central Statistical Office, Lusaka, Zambia.

出版信息

BMC Public Health. 2006 Apr 2;6:83. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-6-83.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The premise for using antenatal care (ANC) clinic data for estimating HIV prevalence in the general population is the finding from community studies in sub-Saharan Africa that total HIV prevalence in pregnant women attending ANC clinics closely approximate levels in the total general population of both women and men aged 15-49 years. In this study, the validity of national level HIV prevalence estimates for the total general population 15-49 years made from ANC clinic and population survey data was assessed.

METHODS

In 2001-2002, a national population HIV prevalence survey for women 15-49 years and men 15-59 years was conducted in Zambia. In the same period, a national HIV sentinel surveillance survey among pregnant women attending ANC clinics was carried out.

RESULTS

The ANC HIV prevalence estimates for age-group 15-49 years (rural: 11.5%; 95% CI, 11.2-11.8; urban: 25.4%; 95% CI, 24.8-26.0; adjusted national: 16.9%; 95% CI, 16.6-17.2) were similar to the population survey estimates (rural: 10.8%; 95% CI, 9.6-12.1; urban: 23.2%; 95% CI 20.7-25.6; national: 15.6%; 95% CI, 14.4-16.9). The HIV prevalence urban to rural ratio was 2.2 in ANC and 2.1 in population survey estimates.

CONCLUSION

The HIV prevalence estimate for the total general population 15-49 years derived from testing both women and men in the population survey was similar to the estimate derived from testing women attending ANC clinics. It shows that national HIV prevalence estimates for adults aged 15-49 years can also be obtained from ANC HIV sentinel surveillance surveys with good coverage when ANC attendance and fertility are high.

摘要

背景

利用产前保健(ANC)诊所数据估算普通人群中艾滋病毒流行率的前提是,撒哈拉以南非洲地区的社区研究发现,到ANC诊所就诊的孕妇中艾滋病毒总流行率与15 - 49岁的男女普通人群总体水平相近。在本研究中,评估了根据ANC诊所和人口调查数据得出的15 - 49岁普通人群国家层面艾滋病毒流行率估算值的有效性。

方法

2001 - 2002年,在赞比亚对15 - 49岁女性和15 - 59岁男性进行了全国人口艾滋病毒流行率调查。同期,对到ANC诊所就诊的孕妇开展了全国艾滋病毒哨点监测调查。

结果

ANC诊所15 - 49岁年龄组的艾滋病毒流行率估算值(农村:11.5%;95%置信区间,11.2 - 11.8;城市:25.4%;95%置信区间,24.8 - 26.0;调整后全国:16.9%;95%置信区间,16.6 - 17.2)与人口调查估算值(农村:10.8%;95%置信区间,9.6 - 12.1;城市:23.2%;95%置信区间20.7 - 25.6;全国:15.6%;95%置信区间,14.4 - 16.9)相似。ANC诊所和人口调查估算值中城市与农村的艾滋病毒流行率之比均为2.2。

结论

通过对人口调查中的男性和女性进行检测得出的15 - 49岁普通人群艾滋病毒流行率估算值,与通过对到ANC诊所就诊的女性进行检测得出的估算值相似。这表明,当ANC就诊率和生育率较高时,通过ANC艾滋病毒哨点监测调查也能够很好地得出15 - 49岁成年人的全国艾滋病毒流行率估算值。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0622/1552066/0ea50655bec2/1471-2458-6-83-1.jpg

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