Forecasting change in Louisiana physician age cohorts: 1994-2020.

A shortage of physicians is predicted in the near future, as there is a mismatch between the supply and demand for physicians. Our objective was to examine what effect an aging Louisiana physician population might have on these forecasts using data from the American Medical Association and population projections from the Louisiana Population Data Center. Our results propose a considerable rise in the number of Louisiana physicians who are older, with growth in younger physicians being continually flat. We forecast 44.2 percent of Louisiana physicians will be over 55 years of age in the year 2020. Acknowledging many limitations of a study such as this, we believe an aging physician population might lead to an overall decrease in the effective physician supply of Louisiana in the future.