Tiutiunov Iu V, Zhadanovskaia E A, Arditi R, Medvinskiĭ A B
Biofizika. 2007 Jan-Feb;52(1):95-113.
A mathematical model of the development of resistance to transgenic Bt-crop in insect-pest populations as applied to the European corn borer has been constructed. The model represents a system of differential equations in special derivatives of the reaction-diffusion type. Local interactions of three competing pest genotypes formed by the allele of Bt-resistance and allele of susceptibility, are described by the same relations as in the Kostitsyn model, and the spread of insects is modelled as diffusion. The model was used to estimate the influence of the pest on the efficiency of the "high dose-refuge" strategy, which is intended for the suppression of development of Bt-resistance in pest populations. It was shown that formal integration of the Fisher-Haldane-Wright model and the diffusion term cannot adequately describe the development of Bt-resistance in a spatially heterogeneous pest population. A further development of the model is discussed.
构建了一个关于害虫种群对转基因Bt作物抗性发展的数学模型，该模型应用于欧洲玉米螟。该模型是一个反应扩散型特殊导数的微分方程组。由Bt抗性等位基因和敏感等位基因形成的三种竞争害虫基因型的局部相互作用，与科斯蒂钦模型中的描述关系相同，昆虫的扩散被模拟为扩散。该模型用于估计害虫对“高剂量-庇护所”策略效率的影响，该策略旨在抑制害虫种群中Bt抗性的发展。结果表明，费希尔-霍尔丹-赖特模型与扩散项的形式整合不能充分描述空间异质害虫种群中Bt抗性的发展。文中还讨论了该模型的进一步发展。
