Panageas Katherine S, Ben-Porat Leah, Dickler Maura N, Chapman Paul B, Schrag Deborah
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, 307 East 63rd St, 3rd Fl, New York, NY 10021, USA.
J Natl Cancer Inst. 2007 Mar 21;99(6):428-32. doi: 10.1093/jnci/djk091.
Progression-free survival (PFS) is increasingly used as an endpoint for cancer clinical trials. Disease progression is typically assessed on the basis of radiologic testing at scheduled time points or after a fixed number of treatment cycles. The date of the radiologic evaluation at which progression is first evident is used as a proxy for the true progression time. The true progression time actually lies somewhere within the time interval between two assessments, a situation that results in interval-censored data. An analysis that ignores this interval censoring and uses the detection date as the date of progression unavoidably results in an overestimation of median PFS. This overestimation can erroneously result in a result being described as clinically significant when in fact a longer median PFS may just be a consequence of the length of the surveillance interval. Furthermore, if surveillance intervals are heterogenous within a disease group, comparisons of median PFS across studies may not be meaningful. The decision to use PFS as a primary endpoint should be made carefully when designing clinical trials, and investigators focused on a particular disease should develop consensus standards and strive for consistent surveillance intervals.
无进展生存期(PFS)越来越多地被用作癌症临床试验的一个终点指标。疾病进展通常是根据在预定时间点或固定数量的治疗周期后进行的影像学检查来评估的。首次出现进展的影像学评估日期被用作真实进展时间的替代指标。真实的进展时间实际上处于两次评估之间的某个时间间隔内,这种情况会导致区间删失数据。一种忽略这种区间删失并将检测日期用作进展日期的分析不可避免地会导致对中位PFS的高估。这种高估可能会错误地导致一个结果被描述为具有临床意义,而实际上较长的中位PFS可能仅仅是监测间隔长度的结果。此外,如果疾病组内的监测间隔不一致,那么跨研究的中位PFS比较可能就没有意义。在设计临床试验时,应谨慎决定是否将PFS用作主要终点指标,专注于特定疾病的研究人员应制定共识标准并努力实现一致的监测间隔。