Strategy development for anticipating and handling a disruptive technology.

The profession of radiology has greatly benefited from the introduction of new imaging technologies throughout its history. Therefore, it would seem reasonable for radiologists to believe that the emergence of a new imaging technology can generally be foreseen with sufficient advance notice to allow the appropriate levels of time, effort, and money to be devoted toward incorporating it into radiology practice. However, in his seminal work, Christiansen characterized a new form of technologic innovation, known as "disruptive technology," whose emergence often heralds the replacement of market leaders in an industry by competitors who are quicker in adopting and deploying the new technology. This article briefly describes the phenomenon of disruptive technology and addresses the challenges that organizations face in dealing with disruptive technology. The article raises 4 questions about the future of radiology: (1) Are health care and radiology vulnerable to disruptive technology? (2) What kinds of change may be in store for the radiology profession? (3) Can the radiology profession prepare itself to recognize and respond to a disruptive innovation among a group of new imaging technologies? and (4) How should a radiology organization decide whether to invest significant resources in a potentially disruptive technology? This article addresses these questions by reviewing key insights from leading "gurus" in the fields of competitive strategy and technology management and applying them to radiology. This illustrates how and why (despite past successes) the radiology profession may still have a blind spot in recognizing and handling disruptive technologies.