Simulation of the cumulative effects of chemical spills using a spatial-temporal dynamics analysis algorithm.

Accidents in urban areas involving chemical spills demands development of not only feasible emergency strategies, but also a consistent framework to protect the environment and prevent accidents. This can be possible only by a sound understanding of the environmental impact of spills and their potential long-term effects. Furthermore, the impact assessment of chemical spills can not be done disregarding the spatial-temporal pattern of previous exposures reciprocally influenced by both chemical and environmental properties. In this context, this paper presents an analysis framework to quantify the cumulative effects of chemical spills at any given point of a certain area based on a "present" history of exposure coupled with chemical and environmental properties to predict possible scenarios of future exposure and estimate in advance potential alarming levels of pollution. In the present circumstances when increasing knowledge is required for an accurate prediction of spill migration through unsaturated soil, this paper proposes an algorithm capable of incorporating models of increasing complexities to simulate the single-spill events once new advancements in the field are taken. The algorithm developed is illustrated using a simple model with homogenous and steady-state conditions to simulate the single-spill events. A hypothetical case study was constructed to illustrate the analysis steps and the benefits of the algorithm.