[An evaluation of the prognosis of patients with chronic severe hepatitis using a model for end-stage liver disease].

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the prognosis evaluation and treatment strategy of chronic severe hepatitis (CSH) patients using a model of end-stage liver disease (MELD).

METHODS

The MELD scores of 135 CSH patients on the day of their admittance to our hospital and the DeltaMELD scores after two-weeks of medical treatment were retrospectively analyzed. They were also compared with the scores of the three-month mortality rate of the patients.

RESULTS

The mean MELD score calculated on the first day of the patients who died after their admission to the hospital was 37.00+/-6.50, while that of the living group was 25.80+/-5.20. The difference was highly significant (chi(2)=72.00, P < 0.01). MELD score after two-weeks medical treatment of the patients who died was 1.57+/-0.89, while that of the living group was -0.99+/-0.73; the difference was also highly significant (chi(2)=56.35, P < 0.01). The area under the ROC curve of MELD score (c-statistic) was 0.90, while the c-statistic for DeltaMELD score was 0.76. On the first day of their admission, when the MELD score was < 25, the three-month mortality rate was 2%; when it was 25 <or= MELD <or= 30, the three-month mortality rate was 7%; when it was 30 <MELD score < 35, the three-month mortality rate was 43%; and when MELD score >or= 35, the three-month mortality rate was 81%; the differences between these groups were all highly significant (P less than 0.01). When MELD scores were above zero, the three-month mortality was 51%, and when DeltaMELD scores were less than or equal to zero, the three-month mortality rate was 13%. All the differences were highly significant (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

A high MELD score and a high Delta MELD score herald high three-month mortality rates in patients with CSH. MELD is quite usable in assessing the prognosis in patients suffering CSH. The choice of treatment for the CSH patients could be made by integrating the MELD score calculated on the first day of being admitted to a hospital and the Delta MELD score after their medical treatment.