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全球海平面上升与温室效应:二者是否有关联?

Global sea level rise and the greenhouse effect: might they be connected?

出版信息

Science. 1989 May 19;244(4906):806-10. doi: 10.1126/science.244.4906.806.

Abstract

Secular sea level trends extracted from tide gauge records of appropriately long duration demonstrate that global sea level may be rising at a rate in excess of 1 millimeter per year. However, because global coverage of the oceans by the tide gauge network is highly nonuniform and the tide gauge data reveal considerable spatial variability, there has been a well-founded reluctance to interpret the observed secular sea level rise as representing a signal of global scale that might be related to the greenhouse effect. When the tide gauge data are filtered so as to remove the contribution of ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment to the local sea level trend at each location, then the individual tide gauge records reveal sharply reduced geographic scatter and suggest that there is a globally coherent signal of strength 2.4 +/- 0.90 millimeters per year that is active in the system. This signal could constitute an indication of global climate warming.

摘要

从具有适当长时间的验潮仪记录中提取的长期海平面趋势表明,全球海平面可能以超过每年 1 毫米的速度上升。然而,由于验潮仪网络对海洋的全球覆盖高度不均匀,并且验潮仪数据显示出相当大的空间可变性,因此人们非常不愿意将观测到的长期海平面上升解释为代表与温室效应有关的全球尺度信号。当对验潮仪数据进行滤波以去除每个位置的当前冰川均衡调整对当地海平面趋势的贡献时,那么各个验潮仪记录显示出明显减少的地理离散度,并表明该系统中存在一个全球一致的信号,其强度为 2.4 +/- 0.90 毫米/年。该信号可能构成全球气候变暖的迹象。

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